Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Archive for year 2012
Breezy Cooler Weather Will Highlight the Eastern Sierra Later this Week….Possible Snow Showers by Friday and into the Night and Saturday……Then Warmer the 2nd Half of the Holiday Weekend….
Monday May 21, 2012
It appears today Monday will be the warmest day of the new week, then the upper jet pays a visit the the high country Thursday into Friday toward the holiday weekend. This mornings guidence showed an east-west oriented upper jet coming into the CA/OR boarder. A short wave trof is currently pushing into Oregon St. As it does, the Front Right exit region of the upper jet will breeze things up over Northern and Central Ca this afternoon and evening. This is a dry system for most of California.
Beyond today Monday….temperatures will slowly cool as the upper jet to the north becomes more NW/SE oriented. By Thursday AM…the nose of a 130knot upper jet begins to shift south into Central California. As it does…. winds will come up Thursday into Thursday night…Clouds will increase as well and cooling will quicken.
By Friday morning, a cold core upper low swings into CA….then over the Sierra by late morning bringing snow showers to the upper elevations above 6K to 7000ft. Showers may continue into the evening with the snow level lowering to about 6000 ft Friday night. At this time it does not look to be significant snowfall producer but temps look some 20 degrees below normal Friday (highs in the 40s upper elevations) with the chance of some light snowfall……………Expect Partly cloudy and gradually warmer weather Sunday into Monday……
More on this system later in the week……
Outlook:
First Half of June:
Normal to below normal temps
Normal chances of measurable precipitation
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….. 
————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Northerly Flow with Little Temperature Change Today….Warmer Over the Weekend….Then Breezy and a Bit Cooler Early next Week…..Possible Storm Lurking Toward the end of the Month….
Friday May 18, 2012
Sunday PM:
The extended models are pretty much in agreement now with a spring storm over the holiday weekend……
We’ll see how she holds up and fine tune the timing during the upcoming week. There appears to be enough cold air and instabiloty for snowshowers beginning Friday then into Saturday. It also appears to be cold enough for some snowfall here in town. But beyond that, amounts this far out are in question. More later……. It should be fun to see it all come together…..next week….:-)
From Friday:
This will be a short one. Upper ridging will build into the state with warmer temps over the weekend. The high temp for Mammoth today will be little changed….but possibly a little cooler. However, temps will warm into the upper very upper 60s by Saturday and low 70s by Sunday. Nighttime lows will be in the upper 20 and low 30s Saturday Am for a little frost in some areas. Otherwise a very nice weekend for the fisher folks with highs well into the 70s out on Lake Crowley, with calm winds in the AM and no major wind problems in the afternoon.
Early next week will breeze up and cool a bit as a storm tracks to our north. About 5 to 6 degrees of cooling is expected with more wind over the upper elevations. The Dweebs do not expect as strong “down sloping winds” like what occured yesterday in some areas of the Owens Valley. However, it will be quite breezy Tuesday.
Outlook:
There is a pretty significant upper jet just off shore…..should it decide to progress a bit more east later in the week, would breeze things up a bit. This leads the Dweebs up to the next question….
How about the prospects for some snowfall before the end of the month??? The ECMWF is becoming more aggressive with stronger troughing off the west coast, developing later during the holiday…..and especially the following week. We are due for a late spring storm here in the high country, if for no other reason other then the odds…. Waters are continuing to be colder then normal off the west coast because of the -PDO and tends to support troughing. Warmer waters are located a bit west of the Dateline. This SSTA pattern still supports west coast troughing…..because of the -PDO. So the immediate coastal sections of Ca will again….”Not have a hotter then normal summer”!!!
There is a strong negative SSTA anomaly in the Bering Sea and to the south, a positive SSTA anomalie. So will there be a strong upper jet emitting from that area??
Will update on Monday……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)
————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Strong Winds…Red Flag Warning today/NGT…then Fab Weekend taking shape w/70s returning by Sunday and through much of next week……
Tuesday May 15, 2012
Thursday AM Update:
Very Warm antecedent conditions ahead of a cold front that is expected to come through this evening will create strong gusty winds, exceptionally low humidity leading to high fire danger in Mono County. The same conditions are expected for the Owens Valley with more wind highlighted because of the topography. A high wind warning is currently in effect with the stronger winds beginning about 2:00pm this afternoon. Travelers will encounter strong down sloping winds up to 70MPH below canyons especially central and southern portions of the valley. The highest Fire Danger is expected today and this evening in the Owens Valley. Bishop hit 94 degrees yesterday with highs possible up to 91 today……Mammoth was 74. With strong 500mb-1000mb thickness packing ahead of the cold front later this afternoon very strong wind is possible later today.
There were no wind advisories for the mono county area indicated today. However, Red Flag Warnings also hoisted for Mono County below 8500 ft.
Tuesday AM Update
Forecast models initialized a small scale upper low between Mammoth Lakes and the Nevada border at 12z this AM. The little feature is progged to shift due east today across Nevada with mainly diurnally induced showers from Central NV north and north east of the upper center. The Dweebs noted that there was north wind this morning at the Bishop AP. An indication that they were on the back side of the upper low. The low is vertically stacked. Temps today will be cooler in the Owens Valley with highs in the mid 80 VS yesterday’s 90F.
Mammoths temps began as low as 30f this AM here at the Village. So better sliding conditions this morning. Today’s highs will be slightly cooler….in the mid 60s.
All areas will be warmer tomorrow as short wave ridging shifts into our area and area of surface convergence moves west again. Some afternoon buildups possible. However, with as dry as the air-mass is…there is little chance of any TSRWs Wednesday as models are marginal at best for instability.
Next upstream trof coming in Thursday. It will become pretty breezy Thursday PM and then expect cooling behind the trof. Friday will be sensibly cooler with highs back down into the low 60s. Another Warm-up is expected over the weekend with highs returning to the low 70s by Sunday. It will be a bit warmer Monday as well.
Weather Outlook: for the 21st through the following Friday
Checking the 6 to 10 day mean heights…”confidence is high” that the mean positive height anomaly will progress east and be centered over the inter mountain west. So expect highs in Mammoth to be mostly in the low to mid 70s. This represents much warmer then normal temp for this time of the year. So enjoy a beautiful week for the last full week that Mammoth MT is open for the 2011/2012 season.
Extended outlook for the Memorial Day Holiday weekend:
The pattern over the far west is expected to be progressive with upper height anomalie over the intermountain west expected to progress to the Central CONUS. Weak Trofing in the mean is expected over California and so for the Mammoth area, expect the likelyhood of more afternoon breeze at times and some what cooler temps over the holiday. Mean 500mb heights are still expected in the upper 570s, so 60s is still reasonable. lows in the 30s. the outlook is currently dry through Memorial Day. In that stronger trofing is expected in the pacific northwest over the holiday…..Confidence in this pertictular extended outlook is less then average at this time. Will update this weekend for the next.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)
————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
