Pattern Change still on track for about the 15th…..Odds beginning to increase for precip between the 15th and the 18th…..big question is…..what happens afterwards…..
Thursday January 5, 2012
Posted at 11:17 pm by Howard
Friday Am update:
Pattern still highlighted by inside slider Saturday morning so breezy and cooler this weekend. Temps probably back more toward Climo 30s during the day. Good snow making conditions. Ridging with inversions setting up again Sunday night into Monday…then another slider or splitting system, middle of next week. Bottom line is…the mean ridge position over the far west and Eastern Pac is still keeping the central and southern west coast dry. Of interest this morning was week 3 of last nights Climo runs. Jan 20th thru 26th showed wet for Central California north through Washington. This is a reversal from the past 5 to 7 days. Well keep eye on this……hopefully something will give. For what it’s worth, today’s run of the Climate models are dry for Central Ca, the week Jan 13th Through the 19th.
There was good ensemble support on today’s 12z ECMWF run for a decent system between the 15th and the 18th of January. The operational run looks impressive for a good precip producer with a fairly wet system, beginning about day 10. (the 15th) Even the new 8 to 14 day outlooks from CPC are now backing to normal precipitation amounts for Central Ca. However…..this is still a long way out and should be looked at with skepticism. During true drought type winters, many models do not handle the deep rooted underlying factors that support patterns, like the ones we have been dealing with. Case in point….notice how the new 00z Friday operational flips back 180 degrees to a ridge the same time frame. Not good….but it will interesting to see what Fridays 12z and this Saturdays 00z ECMWF shows, for the time frame around the middle of the month as that will effect the ensembles and the outlook period.
The GFS fantasy charts are a bit more conservative and elusive, however do bring in some sort of system about mid month. The big question this evening is….. “Is this just a transitional storm between another dry pattern or will this continue into January”. The Jury is still out on this one. Not jumping on the ECMWFs 15 and 30 days at this time. Climate Models are still dry through Feb 1. Only supporting index at the moment is that the AO, which is still expected to drop off into negative territory the 2nd half of January. Stay Tuned!………………..>>>>
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)
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