Strong Winds…Red Flag Warning today/NGT…then Fab Weekend taking shape w/70s returning by Sunday and through much of next week……
Tuesday May 15, 2012
Posted at 9:09 am by Howard
Thursday AM Update:
Very Warm antecedent conditions ahead of a cold front that is expected to come through this evening will create strong gusty winds, exceptionally low humidity leading to high fire danger in Mono County. The same conditions are expected for the Owens Valley with more wind highlighted because of the topography. A high wind warning is currently in effect with the stronger winds beginning about 2:00pm this afternoon. Travelers will encounter strong down sloping winds up to 70MPH below canyons especially central and southern portions of the valley. The highest Fire Danger is expected today and this evening in the Owens Valley. Bishop hit 94 degrees yesterday with highs possible up to 91 today……Mammoth was 74. With strong 500mb-1000mb thickness packing ahead of the cold front later this afternoon very strong wind is possible later today.
There were no wind advisories for the mono county area indicated today. However, Red Flag Warnings also hoisted for Mono County below 8500 ft.
Tuesday AM Update
Forecast models initialized a small scale upper low between Mammoth Lakes and the Nevada border at 12z this AM. The little feature is progged to shift due east today across Nevada with mainly diurnally induced showers from Central NV north and north east of the upper center. The Dweebs noted that there was north wind this morning at the Bishop AP. An indication that they were on the back side of the upper low. The low is vertically stacked. Temps today will be cooler in the Owens Valley with highs in the mid 80 VS yesterday’s 90F.
Mammoths temps began as low as 30f this AM here at the Village. So better sliding conditions this morning. Today’s highs will be slightly cooler….in the mid 60s.
All areas will be warmer tomorrow as short wave ridging shifts into our area and area of surface convergence moves west again. Some afternoon buildups possible. However, with as dry as the air-mass is…there is little chance of any TSRWs Wednesday as models are marginal at best for instability.
Next upstream trof coming in Thursday. It will become pretty breezy Thursday PM and then expect cooling behind the trof. Friday will be sensibly cooler with highs back down into the low 60s. Another Warm-up is expected over the weekend with highs returning to the low 70s by Sunday. It will be a bit warmer Monday as well.
Weather Outlook: for the 21st through the following Friday
Checking the 6 to 10 day mean heights…”confidence is high” that the mean positive height anomaly will progress east and be centered over the inter mountain west. So expect highs in Mammoth to be mostly in the low to mid 70s. This represents much warmer then normal temp for this time of the year. So enjoy a beautiful week for the last full week that Mammoth MT is open for the 2011/2012 season.
Extended outlook for the Memorial Day Holiday weekend:
The pattern over the far west is expected to be progressive with upper height anomalie over the intermountain west expected to progress to the Central CONUS. Weak Trofing in the mean is expected over California and so for the Mammoth area, expect the likelyhood of more afternoon breeze at times and some what cooler temps over the holiday. Mean 500mb heights are still expected in the upper 570s, so 60s is still reasonable. lows in the 30s. the outlook is currently dry through Memorial Day. In that stronger trofing is expected in the pacific northwest over the holiday…..Confidence in this pertictular extended outlook is less then average at this time. Will update this weekend for the next.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.