Warming Trend in Progress as a Strong Progressive Anti Cyclone Dominates California WX Through Tuesday…..Big changes on the Horizon During the 2nd Half of Next Week….
Sunday November 4, 2012
Posted at 10:55 am by Howard
Models continue trend of yesterday with upper trof deepening more over Ca and not off shore.
Quick look at the last nights EC QPF percip forecast shows about .5 to .6 over the crest between Thursday and Saturday. This is the upper limits for Dweebs criteria for Light amounts. Snow to Water ratios will be high with 500mb temps below -30 and thickness dropping into the low 530s so 13: to 1 best Est for 6 to 8 inches at 9000. Will look more closely at any possible orographical effects that may sku precip….
The Dweebs are glad to see November shaping up with some cold weather ahead. Good for the ski area and good for the economy. We still have one more warm up to get through. It will be warm enough for highs to reach the low to mid sixties in Mammoth Tuesday. That is a pretty good feat this time of the year!
Looking at the guidance now, models are coming more into sync showing a very cold trof that makes its way into the area, during the day on Thursday. Along with the Trof will be a fast moving cold front that will most likely give some pretty strong winds to our region as antecedent conditions will be quite warm for this time of the year and thus the surface gradient pretty intense.
Now for the latest on the precip. Although there is still time for an adjustment otherwise, both EC and GFS have come into sink as far as their trajectory over water. It is more to the east now than the past few days. So there will be less over water trajectory for the strong upper jet to work with. The EC has backed off on amounts for the crest to about 7 tenths of an inch. That is a lot less then it was a few days ago when it touted as much as 2 inches. So best guess at this time is that mother nature stands to lay down between 8 inches and a foot. Lets hope the trof digs back a bit west over the next few days, so that amounts swings back wetter again.
Mammoth usually gets about 10:1 for snowfall ratios. However, in a particularly cold storm, the ratios can increase dramatically. This storm will more likely squeeze out a higher ratio then average, as 500mb temps are less then -30 in this trof and a cold 1000-500mb thickness pool of 528dm is associated with it. . Additionally….Mammoth Mt will be able to really lay it down beginning Friday then through the weekend as snow making will be round the clock!! “Best confidence in “snowfall amounts” will be by mid week” However, the Dweebs will update daily……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.