Archive for December, 2012

Mammoth Mountain picks up another 2 to 3 feet over the past 60 hours….Very cold temperatures expected tonight and quite cold but fair Wednesday….Next Storm Rolls in Friday Mid Morning……

More snowfall blanketed the Mammoth area yesterday and last night with amounts about 15 inches at elevations above 8,000 feet 24 inches at 9000 and an estimated 3 feet above 10K.

Once again, the QPF in the models woefully under estimated the combination of the moist upper flow pattern and orographics as along the 395 corridor through Long Valley….only a few inches fell. Another 2 to 5 inches was possible between Sunrise today and late this afternoon before the trof axis passes East.

The next weather feature will be the upper jet sagging south today with the Rt rear entry now effecting the Mammoth area. 1000-500mb thickness falls to 534DM along with the -15C isotherm at 700mb very close to Mammoth tonight for one very cold night in Mid December! Expect temperatures to fall all day today then bottom out tonight around 5F at the Village with temps below zero in town tonight!!  On top of the cold will be breezy conditions with northerly breezes for a wind chill factor.

Expect a couple of fair but cold days both Wednesday and Thursday. The winds will come up again especially Thursday. Highs Today through Thursday in the 20s!

The next storm is a rather large low pressure system in which the amplifying upstream ridge gets pinched off over the high latts because of the strong progressive pattern upstream. Thus the digging of the system is some what short lived and the air following the storm early Monday is not nearly as cold an the air mass as is currently invading our  today and tonight.  However, that may change the following couple of days IE Christmas eve and Christmas day as a northwest Upper jet comes screaming down through Eastern Ca, pulling with it a chilly western Canadian air mass.

RECAP:

Snow will begin falling early Friday morning and will continue on and off through Sunday night. Several feet are expect over Mammoth Mtn. Then lighter snowfall possible Christmas eve into Christmas Day with eastern sierra up slope.

(At this time) The strongest part of the storm will be Sunday into early Monday morning with gradually improving conditions Christmas eve into Christmas Day.  I expect cold weather for Christmas day with northeast winds over the Crest along with strong wind chills. Snow showers are possibly Christmas Eve and Christmas Day then Fair Christmas Day Eve into the following morning…. It looks to be a much nicer day Wednesday the 26th.   More storms are possible later that week.

That’s it for now……the next update tomorrow AM. I am sure the timing will change…it always does…..

The Dweeber…………………..:-)

More unsettled weather today with gusty winds and light snowfall. Most of the snowfall will occur after midnight tonight and especially mid morning Tuesday….It will be fair and cold Wednesday….More snowfall expected this weekend…..

Update to reflect additional accumulations….

Forecasters still having a diffacult time with the QPF and orographics for our area.

Update to reflect accumulations of 5 to 8 inches in town and 12 to 18 inches over upper elevations by noon Tuesday…..

 

Monday AM:

A light to moderate snow producing system is moving into the high country today. Although snow will be likely today with only a inch or two expected at elevations above 7000 feet. The rate of snowfall will pick up letter tonight and be the heaviest between Sunrise and Noon Tuesday. All in All…were are expecting between 3 to 6 inches at 8000 feet storm total and between 6 and 12 inches over the upper elevations by Tuesday night.  There is some real cold air in this system. Temperature will be confined to the 20s for highs after early morning lows in the single digits Wednesday.

The next storm rolls in very slowly Thursday….However, the heavier Accumulations will wait until later in the weekend.

 

Outlook:

Lots of possibilities from an atmospheric river in California before years end,  to lots more snowfall.  However, at this time, confidence in the details of the models are below average…..

 

The Dweeber……………………………………………..:-)

The Weekend continues with very light snowfall Tonight through Monday Morning with rising snow levels…….Best snowfall looks to be later Monday into Tuesday Night….

Sunday AM update:

Windy today and through Tuesday with a slight chance of snow showers today through tonight…..Highs in the 30s….

Snow increasing again by Monday sunrise with snow through the day and into the night tapering off Tuesday after mid- morning. Show showers Tuesday afternoon.  Amounts still look light to moderate with about a foot at the Main Lodge by late Tuesday afternoon…..Strong gusty winds will gradually decrease Tuesday….

The freezing level rises to 8000 feet by midnight tonight then begins to fall during the mid morning hours Monday. The freezing level bottoms out Tuesday night at 3500 feet.

The snow level will rise to about 7000 feet by mid-night tonight then fall below the Mono County valley floor by early Tuesday morning…

Next Weekends storm is a powerhouse….it will begin about Thursday night…..first est. 2 to 4 feet by the end of the weekend….Another storm is expected after Christmas Day……

 

The Dweeber………………….:-)

 

From Saturday PM:

Today’s’ weather continued to be rather chilly with some snow showers mainly over the crest. And…..Today was another day where the high temperature did not break above freezing here near the village. However, it was still 5 degrees warmer than the day before.  Expect moderating temps through Sunday night as the freezing level climbs from 3800 feet this morning to 8000 feet by Midnight Sunday. Snow levels will continue below the Town of Mammoth Lakes. The weather maps today show a rather flat northwest flow aloft. Within the upper flow is an area of moisture that is currently advecting into our area and should continue into Sunday.  We call this warm advection or a warm frontal precipitation as the air-mass moving into our area is warmer than the area it is replacing.

Generally, more stratiform clouds can be expected with light snowfall not amounting to much more than an inch or so between tonight and Monday morning. The freezing level will begin to come down again during the day on Monday as a cold front approaches and moves through Tuesday night.  Expect winds to become stronger Sunday night with quite breezy conditions through Tuesday. SW 15 to 35MPH. Ridges will gust to 100mph after midnight.  At this time, snowfall will be in the light/moderate class with about 6 in town and about a foot or so over the upper elevations by Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall amounts still look like about a foot+/- at the main lodge by Tuesday evening.   Expect Fair weather Wednesday.

The Dweebs have put the idea of an Atmospheric River event on hold for the time being as the blocking pattern that is forecasted to form over the central pacific is looking much more progressive now. However it still looks like the Sierra will be in for quite a storm with some kind of subtropical tap next weekend. An estimate shows that precipitation may begin about Midnight Thursday night and that the storm may last up to 3 days….with 2 to 4 feet possible. In the longer range, the 18z gfs run had another storm beginning about Christmas Day eve.

That’s it for now…..will update Sunday night…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)