Last Gasp of the Winter Trofs at Hand as CFS shows June Weather to bring on Summer Heat Quickly!!!
Tuesday May 21, 2013
Posted at 7:45 am by Howard
Wednesday AM Update:
An upper trof over Oregon this morning is providing the gradient for WSW winds to continue. Upper Jet still favorable for wind gusts to 70MPH over the upper elevations and gusts to 40MPH in town. It will be a cooler day today with highs in the mid 50s and nighttime low will dip well down into the 20s by AM. Although the upper flow will remain westerly over the Sierra, the upper trof that is stuck over the Pacific Northwest due to the stationary ridge over the Midwest will begin to lift NNE away from us. So the height rises this weekend are due to that action, rather than any ridging from the west. What this means is that no doubt there will be another trof that will effect us early next week with more wind and cooling.
Yesterdays discussion highlighted the strong possibility of early Summer type heat coming to stay over the far west. That still looks good for an end to Spring weather wise. However, the persistence of trofing will delay that most likely now until (week-3); (the 2nd week of June). So on again off again warming and cooling along with periods of wind look likely to continue through or into the 1st week of June.
Have a great Memorial Day Holiday……If you get the chance, get over the Sierra Crest into the Yosemite Valley, as I hear it is quite beautiful now.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)
After mulling over the guidance this morning it is apparent that the current Trof moving into the pacific northwest initiating another period of snow for the Cascades and wind and cooling for our high country may be the last of the colder half of the year. Lots of folks around town have periodically asked if winter is over and my reply has been no, not yet. However today, after seeing the trend from the Climate Forecast System for the jump in heat for California, which is contrary to earlier forecasts of trofing through mid June. The trend now is away from additional troughing in June as a strong upper Subtropical high sets up over the far west and California during the Weeks 3 and 4.
This means that this current cool down along with subfreezing temps at resort levels may actually be the last of the season, as although we will be cooler the next few days, and seasonal temperature wise into this weekend and next week. Temperatures will climb to above normal later next week and beyond. It is starting to look like and early hot summer for California. And….After two dry years, you know what that means…
The Monsoon Season may get an earlier start, however, high based thunderstorms just need an elevated source for a couple of days to get going.
Mammoth residents should prepare now for the Summer by clearing brush, tree limbs close to roofs and small trees below the canopy to fire safe their homes and yard.
Forecast and Summery:
A strong cold trof now moving into the pacific northwest bringing strong gusty winds to the high country along with a cooling trend. The cooling should bottom out by Thursday with highs in the low 50s and lows in the 20s. In that there is a strong blocking high over the Midwest, the trof will be slow to move out of the northern Great Basin. So breezy weather is likely to continue into Thursday. Expect height rises over the weekend with temps returning to near normal then. No precipitation is expected this weekend. High temps will be seasonally in the low 60s and lows in the low 30s.
Although the GFS has another system over the far west next week bringing another round of cooling, the ECMWF is warmer and drier. The thought is that no matter whether we get another round of cooling and wind or not next week, the Hemispheric Pattern shift is such that by the following weekend, we get into a pattern of above normal temps which will likely increase into week 3.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)
PS. Congratulation’s to my Son Clifford for Graduating last Saturday from
USC’s KECK School of Medicine with the degree of MD.
Way to go Cliff!!!!