Back Peddling Continues as Central Pacific Upper Ridge now Forecasted to Set Up Too Far West……Major Storminess for the Central Sierra Now Unlikely Mid Week…..
Thursday November 7, 2013
Posted at 8:55 am by Howard
Short term: Short wave passing to our north today has brought in a thin high cloud deck. However, 500MB heights are high enough for a few more degrees of warming. Additionally, 700MB winds will come up a bit today with gusts over the crest to at least 50 MPH. Local breezes will reach into the 25 to 30 mph range. The Dweebs are expecting a high of 58 degrees at 8000 feet. Temps on Mammoth Mt for the opener will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Again it will be breezy this afternoon. The skiing should be great as a lot of Man Made snow was laid down…some natural snow was mixed in as well! The forecast for the following few days will indicate light winds until Saturday night or Sunday when it will become breezy again. Expect little change in temperatures with highs in the upper 50 and lows in the 20s and low 30s. It is a dry 3 to 4 day forecast.
Outlook: The back peddling continues as the upper ridge that governs the down stream pattern to a major degree is now progged over the dateline instead of between 170W to 175 West. It is amazing when you think of it, that an adjustment of a few hundred miles either way in this feature can make a huge difference in the results of how much precipitation we could get. As it stands, with the amount of amplification pronged for that feature, there is the chance of some light snowfall here in Mammoth Monday night and Tuesday. I would say at this point somewhere between 1 and 6 inches to cover it top to bottom. Thereafter, it will be unsettled for a few days with breezy conditions, partly to mostly cloudy sky’s and at best very light precipitation. The bulk of the deep moisture off shore shifts to the North of Central CA Next week. In looking at the GFS means this morning, Day 11 shows some hope for that positive height anomaly shifting slightly east again by the very end of next week. Additionally, there appears to be a Kona Storm to the NNW of Kauai.
See: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NHEM_f264wbg.gif The Kona feature is part of the REX block in that area. It has the potential to generate a lot of Subtropical moisture that would flow out of that area for confluence off the west coast. Just something to watch the end of next week.
Remember, just an eastward shift of three hundred to five hundred miles in that 500MB upper positive height anomaly would make a huge difference precipitation wise for us…..
Time to get the Snow Dancing Going……with sacrificial effigies………;-)
Will update next Monday…..
Have a nice weekend….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)