Strong Inversions to Hold Through Weeks end with Milder Weather over the Weekend into Early Next Week……Another fridged system is lurking for Friday Next Week…..
Wednesday December 11, 2013
Posted at 9:36 am by Howard
No Surprises.. Warmer weather the next few days then cold pattern to repeat with a couple of very cold California sliders bringing some light snowfall Thursday into Friday. Very cold temps with highs Thursday the 19th into the teens and 20s and lows in the zeros and single digits. possible snow showers Thursday. Maybe an inch or two.
This is a drought pattern……for the time being>>
I have to say that it is one of the ugliest I have seen in several years……
Thank Mammoth Mountain for all their great snowmaking, They are doing a fabulous job!!!!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
Temperatures will remain mild here in the high country today with daytime highs in the low to mid 40s…Nights in the teens. Although there was no wind yesterday, a weak trof of low pressure will move through Friday morning, kicking up some upper elevation wind from the NW, 25mph to 50mph, and bringing some cooling to the tune of 5 to 7 degrees. This is certainly good news for the snow making program on Mammoth Mtn. In speaking with Cliff Mann from Mammoth Mountain. All runs that are part of the snow making program will have great coverage. Even the Little Eagle Area will be ready to go for the Christmas holiday! June Mountain has trails ready to go as they open tomorrow the 13th. They will continue to open additional trails in the future.
Although Mother Nature has not cooperated in the snow department, the cold wave of last week created perfect snow making conditions on Mammoth Mountain and so skiing and boarding conditions will be excellent for the holiday!
Weather-wise, as noted above, some short-term cooling is expected Friday. However, temperatures will rebound Saturday into Monday. It will stay mild through Wednesday. Thereafter, another inside slider is expected the 19th next Thursday. *Should it track a bit further west, then we could get some light additional snowfall. However at this time, the track is through the great basin and it is dry meaning some snow showers are possible but no significant accumulations. It will also be windy and cold. Note…..the change from yesterday is that fridged air or Arctic air in no longer in this outlook period as the upper ridge is not as amplified on this morning run, as was the case yesterday. Additionally, no over water trajectory is noted on either the ECMWF or GFS. So outside of some snow showers, it is a typical December inside slider.
*9:10am update….The new 12Z Thursday GFS is a bit west with a short wave offshore, but the GFS splits the trof and the energy stays off shore going south. IE (No Effect for Mammoth)
Longer Range: Week 2 (Subject to Change)
Looking at the ECMWF ensembles and controlled forecast for week two,
There is another slider expected about Christmas Day. This does look colder with Arctic Air. Cross Polar Flow into the Nations mid section is indicated as well, so some of the coldest air yet this season is expected over the west and especially the Midwest. Other then that, the Dweebs will be following this development…..If it trends west “over water.”….It would be a similar system that brought about a foot last week.
Stay Tuned…………….The Dweebs have you covered! 🙂
Looking out over the pacific….The split in the westerlies off the pacific coast will keep CA dry. The details show the eastern pacific ridge shifting east and weakening while a small slider drops through the west/central Great Basin Thursday night. While none of the models bring any precipitation with this system for the Mammoth area, the models handle the feature different enough that there is a question on whether or not the it may generate enough wind to mix out the valleys. I think that what ever happens, it will be a cooler day here in Mammoth Friday. Temperatures Saturday into Sunday warm again…… Of note, there is a cluster of ensembles that feature a cut off Low……off the Southern CA coast early in the weekend. That may affect the Southern CA coastal areas but not Mammoth Lakes.
Of note, both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks were dry for Mammoth, while at the same time…..there was beginning to be some ensemble members showing up on the GFS and ECMWF that showed another round of amplification (ridging) into the Gulf of Alaska between 140W and 150W and a responding short wave affecting the Central West Coast Between Wednesday and Friday next week. I suspect that if we continue to see this feature today in the next 4 runs and especially again tomorrow, the outlooks will change. As a comment, the GEM does not have this feature at all! But sometimes the Canadian is not as good on the west coast as the other two.
Some Guess Work:
For what its worth…the ECMWF has a pretty sharp positive tilt upper trof approaching the west coast Wednesday night with ample over water trajectory for moderate snowfall. A very cold area of Arctic Air stretched between Washington state north to the NW territories shows coupled with the offshore Trof. The upstream feature over BC is phased to an Arctic Low even north of 60N over Central Canada. (Continental Polar). By Friday, the EC has the an Arctic low over Washington State poised to slide south behind the lead short wave Friday. If this sets up as shown…..high temps would be back into the low teens, Friday and Saturday, possibly setting us up for another extended cold wave as subsequent short waves from AK/BC are indicated..
Again……not all the models are handling this the same way. However…..in that we have seen this pattern recently, it would not surprise the Dweebs of it recurring again later next week VS if this had not happened at all. If this verifies, and at this point it is a big if…..another possible 6 inches to a foot could fall on Mammoth Mt. This would be followed by the return of the Deep Freeze. The Cold Air-Mass over the Great Basin is depicted by the ECMWF on the 20th over Northern NV Friday as a -3.2 Sigma. (Standard deviations from Climo)…Thus as we approach the coldest time of the year for Mammoth that would be significant.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)