While Split Trof moves through CA bringing high cloudiness….There is an interesting feature in the models about a week away…..
Tuesday January 20, 2015
Posted at 5:02 pm by Howard
The ever resilient ridge of high pressure is still hanging out over the far west keeping CA locked into a historic drought of middle age proportions. Really? Maybe….
I can not seem to get any straight answers for those in the know. I have heard 1200 year drought. I would love to see the data on that! Some one needs to present to the LA times a tree ring study on that one for all to see.
I have heard of 2 extreme dry years in a row but this dry and now 3.5 years. I do not know or have heard of anyone taking water measurements in CA back in the 1500, 1600 or 1700s. Some CA natives back then may have been into Weather. Possibly written in the Petroglyphs? Seem like a lot of work just to tell a dry story….especially one without much humor.
But during the little ice age in the late 1600s, might have CA been this dry? It is all about the wave length. A deep persistent polar vortex that descends out of the Arctic via Canada over the eastern half of the CONUS that would freeze the Great Lakes and inlets of the east coast. Would that not bring drought to the central west coast inland? Think about it. It all about the planetary wave length. A Big Omega Block with the polar vortex in the east and a mega ridge even stronger than this one out west followed by a western deep Trof south to Hawaii. Where are there tree ring studies for the mid to late 1600s during the little ice age for CA? The bristle cone pines where growing in the Bristle Cone Forest on White Mtn. I wonder what the research shows for that time frame.
There is an interesting twist in the GFS the last few days. It is worth mentioning because the new higher Res T1534 GFS shows it as well as the new 12Z ECMWF.
This is the scenario. The forecasted Ridge that is expected to build into California this weekend becomes extremely positive tilt. Before it builds in, a shearing trof comes through the upper flow Thursday, then digs south off the Southern CA coast, well down over tropical Mexican waters. This Tropical/Subtropical Eastern Pacific low spins up…then lifts north into CA about next Tuesday.
This is similar to an early season tropical depression that comes up along the Baja Coast gets entrained into an approaching mid latitude trof, then spreads rains into Southern CA and eventually the Sierra. It is interesting to note that there is a PWAT pool of moisture up to about 2.00 inches to tap from. This is only worth mentioning as the new 6 to 10 day outlook is showing the possibility of something like this effecting CA next week. This would be a warm system with high snow levels. What aids the trajectory of the moisture is that the upper ridge progresses into the Great Basin providing the channel for the moisture into CA. I do not remember seeing something like this, this time of the year in memory.
On another note, we are at the end of the 21 day cycle and the Dweebs would expect the pattern over eastern pacific to go into transition. And…..it appears that it is beginning to do just that…. The first change is with the wave length. Once the new pattern sets up, the models will reset and we’ll see what kind of animal we have coming our way. We are talking February now which the latest guidance is showing to be wetter then normal. Let hope that is correct…..