It’s Almost ShowTime for “AR” event for CA…..Ready….Set….Dump…..Week 2 GFS has an “AR” Encore later in Feb for possible Fab February??
Thursday February 5, 2015
Posted at 10:12 am by Howard
Now it’s getting really interesting as HPC’s 5 Day QPF has gone though the roof painting 12+ inches of water over the Sierra Crest between Tonight and Monday Night. In chatting with the lead at WSFORNO, the forecaster from last night’s shift, was of the opinion that the QPF is way over done. However, with that said, the models did come in wetter over night further south, and a bit warmer too. So the Snow Level will probably verify another 500 feet higher. IE 8500 to 9000 on the average, with the SL varying up and down from there. The snow level will be lower with Sunday nights and Monday’s storm.
The latest CRFC QPF for Yosemite is close to 7.00 inches of water. If we use 7:1 that is close to 50 inches of snow over the crest storm total. Additionally, like the Dweebs indicated in a previous discussion, odds are good that over the next 72 hours, Mammoth Pass will double the amount of water in the snowpack of the entire Winter/Fall; and…that with Mammoth Mt being likely to get between 3 and 4+ feet,of heavy wet snowfall, this is likely to ensure a long ski season for the Eastern Sierra’s, favored Resort!
PS: the CVSv2 for week 3 showed “AR” Redux between the 20th and 26th of February. “Fab February” anyone?
Like header says…..Ready-Set-Dump! The Dweebs were thinking about the possibility that Mammoth Pass might receive in this one “AR” event as much water as it has received form the entire winter so far. You never exactly know what you’re going to get when orographic’s come into play. This mornings CRFC showed about four and a third inches of water in this event by Monday. There is a reported 5.9 inches of water up on the pass. It is possible to double that with orographics. Want to see some examples of orographic’s? Check out this link and imagine where the Sierra is in relation to the upper flow. The Dweebs call that the BIG SQUEEZE as the air is forced to rise natural to the Sierra. See: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-162.04,14.31,293
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)