MAMMOTH MT CLOSES THE END OF TODAY ON 10 TO 40 INCH BASE…..SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL AROUND THE HOLIDAY….THE CHANCE OF MORE THUNDER IS EXPECTED WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK……
Monday May 25, 2015
Posted at 9:19 am by Howard
Showers and Thunder brought up to a Quarter of an inch of rain over some areas of the Mono County Crest with Mammoth Pass getting .24 hundreds. Some areas over western NV had 1/2 inch of rain.
There is similar conditions today although the air mass is a tad drier. There appears to be decent CAPE over NE Inyo County and forecasts of 250mb divergence in the same area late this afternoon. So, more scattered thunderstorms along the whites and northern Owens Valley including Bishop looks good.
High temps today in Mammoth today will continue in the low 60s…then rise to the mid 70s by Saturday. It will be hot in the Owens Valley this weekend with mid to upper 90s Saturday and Sunday.
There is a strong short wave that will bring moderate winds to Mono County beginning Sunday afternoon, into Monday. This is a dry systems but it will be particularly windy over night Sunday because of warm antecedent conditions ahead of it. More on this Springtime Northern CA storm later…..
Although there was lots of threatening clouds around Sunday, with few exceptions, little precipitation was actually measured in town. Nevertheless….Mammoth Pass picked up .28, Graveyard Meadows at the 6900 foot level picked up .32 and Huntington Lake .12….. Most of the convection was driven by a combination of solar and 250mb divergence aloft. Today, there is still plenty of moisture around for more late afternoon action, however, it may be a bit further east and north today. Latest SPC shows good -1 lifted’s over the central sierra with best Unstable CAPE along the Mono County NV border from the Northern Whites along the border then up into Mineral County. So the best action may end up building over the Sierra then shifting North then East later today to around the Mono Lake area North to the Bodie Hills then east over the border into Mineral County, Nv.
This Weeks Weather and beyond:
The blocking pattern that has suppressed the westerlies the past few weeks will retrograde west later next week over Asia. This will eventually allow the westerlies to redevelop up into the pacific northwest bringing the return of Springs rains up in the NW or possibly a Mini “AR” later next week. All that while a dry WSW flow develops for the Central Sierra with afternoon and evening dry Zephyr Winds early next week. (Week 2)
Last night Euro Model had the first tropical system (Andres) developing from an easterly wave at about 10N/110West. The tropical depression actually gets picked up later this coming weekend by an approaching short wave moving towards Northern CA under the AK block. As the short wave moves through Northern CA and OR Monday the 1st of June, strong Zephyr drying winds blow through Mammoth Pass beginning Sunday PM and Monday the June 1st. This effectively knocks the top off the heat wave next weekend for the first part of the following week. Early next week will be an especially dry period for Mammoth.
Back to the Tropical System…..The Tropical system gets pulled up as far north 115/20N or on a latitude several hundred miles west of Puerto Vallarta. The Northern CA system heads east and leaves the tropical system hanging over the eastern pacific while the TS helps build a tropical ridge ahead of it as the TS apparently weakens. Then a pattern change occurs over the pacific later next week which allows a strong positive tilt trof to develop NW of Hawaii NE to BC. to the south of the elongated positive tilt trof…..A stretched out Subtropical Ridge between CA and the Hawaiian islands set up then gets pulled apart by that following weekend of the 6th and 7th of June. June 6th and 7th looks very hot for CA.
With the eastern flank of the upper ridge bubbling up and forming the 1st subtropical continental high over the 4 corners states by the 8th….SE flow is suggested off the Continental high. With the remains of Andres” lurking to the south, will have to keep an eye out for an early start to the Monsoon Season at that time.
In the meantime, this weeks weather will still offer a chance of showers and thunder, although it will be less organized than the system last Saturday. Nonetheless, through this mid-week, there will still be enough residual moisture and upper divergence for T-storms, that will develop over the Sierra during the afternoon and shift east or NE into NV. By Thursday, a pretty good Mid level Cap forms, from the first late spring 500MB upper ridge moving into the state. This will suppress T-storms via a mid level inversion, and bring much above temps for the last few days of May. This would result in “low to mid 70s in Mammoth for the 1st time this year. At least low to mid 90s are expected in Bishop over the upcoming weekend.
The last few runs of the CFSv2 has backed off in the Nino 3.4 region from 3.1.5C to 2.8C by next Mid October. The decrease of the .035C should not be unexpected. This model historically over “does it” in the Spring just like it did last year. That is why most climate forecasters like to wait until later in the Summer or Fall to forecast the odds of moderate or strong warm event for the upcoming winter. The ENSO this year at this time is a lot different from what happened during last years El Nino bust. Last years Kelvin Wave did much to get us out of La Nina. However, the warming was too far west to do any good for CA. ENSO last winter was set up much like the winter of 76-77 which was a Modoki. The warmest water was in the NINO 4 region near the dateline instead of south of Hawaii eastward. The +PDO was at a record high for Dec to March. The current forecast for this fall is for the El Nino to peak in the Nino 3.4 region which is where we want it to be. However, the big question is how long it will stay that warm in that region and how warm will it be in the January to March time frame.
This year at this time, we have already have already crossed the threshold into the area of Moderate El Nino territory….Now, Today! The Dweebs believe that this El Nino will grow stronger into the Summer and Mid Fall based upon the guidance. Although we do not know what the upcoming winter will be like as it is still too early, the Dweebs believe that at least through the Fall, snows will come early to Northern and Central CA with a good chance of a few good storms as early as early to mid October, with a wet November and December following. So it is my opinion that a better and earlier start to the ski season will occur this year, even if the actual Winter turns out to be mediocre. The Climate Scientist’s will have better confidence for next winter based upon ENSO later this Summer.
The Dweebs will be watching the MJO and its strength in hopes that it can generate strong Typhoons combined with future strong Westerly Wind burst action over the western and central pacific along the equator this Summer and Fall that would enhance future Kelvin wave activity and support the Nino Basins warmth well into the winter. If this action develops, the Nino Basin will stay anomalously warm until the system breaks down next year and we go into La Nina again….possibly for the winter of 2016/17 or the year after.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………….:-)