Weak Ridging will bring a Minor Warm-up over the high country the next few days…..Sunday Night Monday System Trending Drier than earlier predictions….
Friday November 6, 2015
Posted at 3:38 pm by Howard
Looking at 00z runs Upper Trof and weather front are now as comparable as it looked 3 to 4 days ago. In fact the moisture plum looks a little juicier. So 7 to 12 inches with some areas as much as 15 inches over the crest at 12:1 to 13:1 at 10K and above. This snow will be nice and light! Good powder skiing Monday afternoon. The Town will get 3 to 6+ inches between Sunday night and Monday PM
Western Hemispheric pattern remains very progressive! No Eastern Pacific Blocking! New QPF still hangs on to this mornings update with close to an Inch. Snow to start Sunday night with snow likely By Midnight…. Forecast amounts in forecast discussion below still look good….
Saturday AM update:
it did not make much sense updating yesterday in that models trended drier with the storm for Sunday night and Monday. This mornings update raises hope that amounts “Maybe” more inline with earlier forecasts. Looking at the new 12z Saturday WRF/NGM it is becoming more obvious that this storm will have two parts. The Front that will come in Sunday night, and a VT max with the upper trof itself. The first part of the storm would bring up to 5 or 6 inches over the upper elevations by Monday AM. The 2nd part of the storm seems to be lagging some 6 to 12 hours behind. This second part is quite convective and “if” it come in like the WRF shows, it may bring another 3 to 6 inches as well. Convective systems are more difficult to forecast as they are associated with smaller scale areas of precipitation. This means that areas that are a few miles away from heavier areas of precipitation could be much drier. For what it is worth, latest WRF QPF for our area is now up to close to an inch. Translate that to snowfall , and considering the temperature’s, it is close to a foot over Mammoth Mt by early Tuesday AM.
The Dweebs will update Sunday morning…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………..:-)