Cold Northerly Flow will continue through tonight with upslope cloudiness and a few flurries or snow showers Monday…..An Inside slider will bring the chance of snow showers Tuesday and weak system late Wednesday before the off shore ridge builds along the coast Friday into the weekend….It will be milder over the weekend….
Monday February 1, 2016
Posted at 9:05 am by Howard
The Weekend Storm brought over two feet to the Village at Mammoth last weekend and between 3 and 4.5 feet to Mammoth Mountain. Today’s weathers is highlighted by the exiting storm over the Great Basin into the Central Rockies and a highly amplified upper ridge off shore providing a North South gradient to eastern California. As the Dweebs have always mentioned, The lower elevations of Mammoth are not subject to strong or even moderate Northerly Winds. So it will be a little breezy today in town and cold! The high temperature forecast at the Village at Mammoth is 20 degrees. It will not be much warmer Tuesday with a temperature forecast of 25. Expect about 10 degrees of warming by Wednesday and the upper ridge weakens a bit due to a system mobbing through the ridge. Lows at night will be 0 to 6 degrees by Early Tuesday AM.
I picked up here at the Village, a good 2.5 feet storm total from the weekend storm. Mammoth Mt indicated that between 3 and 4.5 feet fell as well. The Mountains base depth is now close to between 9 and 14 feet.
Mondays forecast shows a drying trend with northerly flow and thus an upslope component bringing clouds for the first half of today along the eastern slopes. For today Monday, expect a few flurries over the upper elevations with no measurable precipitation expected. There will be 2 weak impulses the first half of this week. One Tuesday and the other later Wednesday. Snow showers my occur with each of them. However, only light accumulations with a (Trace to 2″) expected….
Thursday, a new weather pattern will begin to develop. One with dry weather that will last for a week or longer….
The outlook for the Super Bowl weekend is for highs in the mid 40s…lows 15 to 25 with dry weather and light North Easterly flow over the lower slopes..
As we move out in time into the following week (Week 2), the west coast ridge punches up into the Arctic with another Arctic high coupled to this system. The thing that is interesting is that the AO in the EC and GFS ensembles remain mostly positive and so (no long term blocking is expected as no strong persistent -AO or -NAO develops. The 21 day cycle suggests otherwise and that would usually give the west a pretty much dry February or at the least for 3 weeks (21 day cycle). But the Dweebs are Poo- Pooing that for the time being… Although, a cold trof develops over the Eastern CONUS the 8th-9th of February forming an Omega Block over the western hemisphere, the lack of a -AO -NAO allows the pattern to be progressive and so that by mid month, the Eastern Trof gets flushed out over the Atlantic, once again opening up the wavelength, allowing the west coast ridge to break down toward mid month, initiating a new possible storm cycle for CA.
So the screaming message is…..Enjoy the next week to 10 days out with out a “major storm” IE (1 to 2 feet) as it is highly unlikely…
Then expect a change in the pattern around or toward mid-month (Feb)
PS. mild Santa Ana for So Cal weekend into early next week with mid 70s or even low 80s possible..
Sundays Super Bowl Weather will be super as well with highs in the low 70s!…
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………..:-)