Last in the Series of storms hit the sierra this weekend…then a nice break next week……………………..
Friday March 11, 2016
Posted at 7:38 am by Howard
Changes in the weather pattern across the far eastern pacific and downstream are becoming less conducive for storminess over the next week. The East Asian Upper Jet stream is weakening as the main area of tropical forcing along the equator weakens and redevelops over the Indian ocean.
The immediate effects in the next two weather systems headed for the Sierra are:
- The Splitting of the Friday/Night storm due to a shorter wave length created by the upper low now lifting into Texas.
- This will have the effect of weakening it to where most of the precipitation for our area will fall on Mammoth MT or the Sierra Crest…….With a lot of shadowing as you go east.
- Snowfall estimates for Mammoth Mt are about 7 to 14 inches by Saturday AM; (3 to 7 in town)
The next and last in the series of storms will move into the sierra after midnight Saturday night with the remains of it moving out Tuesday AM. This system does not dig as much or have the depth that the models showed earlier in the week. Again, this is because of the weakening and retraction of the earlier extension of the *EAJ. With both of these storms, there will be a lot of wind. The snowfall forecasts for the Sunday through Monday Night look like more in the 1 to 2+ foot range now. So the 3 to 5 feet that was touted two days ago is off the table and more likely 2 to 3+ feet over the upper elevations between this Friday and Tuesday AM. The Town of Mammoth should get between 3 to 7 inches from the Friday/Night Storm and 6 to 12+ from the Sunday Through Tuesday AM system.
Wind: The 2nd weather system coming in later Saturday has a nasty West NW upper jet. So it will be a windy one…right on into Monday….
With the East Asian Jet continuing to retract, a full latitude fair weather ridge is probably going to develop over the far eastern pacific later next week. However…..The pattern becomes progressive again by the end of next week or beginning of the next as both the ECMWF and the GFS has another series of storms headed for California.
Last nights ECMWF brings a storm into the west coast on Sunday while the new 12Z GFS this morning shows it more like Monday. However, using the Hovmoller method, there isn’t any Surface Cyclogenesis out at 140E (off the coast of Japan), until Friday night the 18th…..which via the Hovmoller method, would propagate the short wave energy through our state Tuesday night the 22nd. So The Dweebs are not sure about what the models are seeing for a Sunday or Monday storm. It may be delayed a day or two. Stay Tuned on this one……More later on the long range next week…..
*EAJ = East Asian Jet
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)