The current episode of anomalous warmth will peak over Eastern CA the next few days and hold through the weekend…..RIMM signel still very strong for pattern change later next week……
Tuesday November 8, 2016
Posted at 8:55 am by Howard
Quick Update this Voting Day Tuesday to say that the RIMM phase space is still a go for retrogression of the long wave features later this week into next week. There will be no sensible weather changes this week. However, next week will become cooler by mid-week with an increase in wind and high clouds. High temperatures will warm to the low 60s today and hold there for several days. A little cooling is possible over the weekend but not much. Nights will continue in the 30s at 8000 feet. There will be little in the way of wind.
The details in the structure of the wavelength across the pacific or how strong the amplification will become toward the end of next week is not known yet. Odds are that it will turn colder than normal, windy at times with the possibility of precipitation by weeks end. The MJO signal when used is only a tool for a change in the pattern over the western hemisphere that would affect any given area over the far west. However, it does not tell you how much snow you will get if any, or how cold it will become. That information is in the future guidance of the global models with good confidence within 7 days of any particular time frame. This weekend represents the end of week two and the beginning of week 3 when RIMM Phase Space showed a strengthening signal east of the western pacific then eastward to the central pacific a week ago last Monday. Today’s NCEP briefing should shed light on what the signal really is as supported by other induces. I will update this Thursday via my weather letter 1st, then publicly this weekend via the Dweeb Report. As a comment, we all want tons of snow for various reasons. However, as of this time, no one has witnessed a late Fall 2016 winter like pattern yet. The precipitation events of last October and associated pattern are a lot different than the pattern that will be developing late next week and into the end of November. The Dweebs sincerely hope that when the pattern or structure sets up, that it will be a wet one for California. Worst care scenario is that it turns cold and Mammoth Mt makes a lot of snow!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)