Split flow blues to have silver linning as split delayed allowing decient moisture to arrive Sunday…..Thanksgiving Turkeys to gobbeling in the snow this season with more on the way afterwards….
Saturday November 19, 2016
Posted at 9:54 am by Howard
Split flow taking its toll but active area to our west still expected to move east……North/South orientated Precip band is from about June Lake north with a fairly active area over Madera to the west. We may still get a few inches out of it so hold on…. As mentioned in earlier post…Split flow patterns are difficult to forecast……..
Next system is expected for Wednesday…although it is not splitting it is going to be mostly to our north.
More in letter issued later…
Our splitting system still on the way and taking its good sweet time. Snow fall should begin about 6:00PM with very light amounts. Thereafter, precip rates will pick up later this evening…. Amounts should be in the 4 to 8 inches class over the upper elevations with 2 to 4 in town by morning…
Next system Monday…..
Fellow Dweebs, Dr Howard just had a total knee replacement Thursday AM so please pardon me if I do not share the current developing patterns enthusiasm as often as I would like to. With that said, the weather letter will always be on time with the help of Cyber K.
Looking at the ECMWF Ensembles, both Control and Ens Mean, it is evident that our current split flow pattern will consolidate toward the end of the month with a couple of good storms between about thanksgiving and Dec 1st. There are timing issues of course this far out so I will not speculate on when the storms may arrive later next week, just that the long adjustment wave over the Eastern Pacific is coming into CA. Also, as we go into December, the upper jet will become more NW orientated and so some of the storms will have lots of wind with them month end, into Dec. The best system in the series may be around Dec 4th.
The most current pressing system time wise is going to work out pretty week as the split comes in much later than earlier forecasted. This delay in split will allow some moderate snowfall to work into the Mammoth, Sunday morning through Sunday evening. This is not a cold storm. But will allow the snow levels to fall to 7000 feet during the latter half of the storm, then as low as 6000 feet about the time when the precip will be most over. For the Snowplowers, and the guys itched to get out there, this looks like a late afternoon or evening plow when the storm is pretty much wrapped up. The upper mountain may get between 12 and 15 inches with the latter reserved for the very upper mountain as I see it. More may fall but as you know, split flow systems are sometimes the most difficult to forecast amounts…..The Town of Mammoth may get up to 6 inches at the village. The next storm looks to be about Wednesday….more later.
I wanted to reiterate to all that the forecast of the change of pattern was picked up the latter part of October by the MJO phase space, and that is impressive from an inter seasonal point of view.