MJO into Phase Space 6 then 7…Some high temperature records possibe for the Golden State…..Watch for big change in the pattern about the end of 3rd Week of November…

There is some amazing amplification taking place in the MJO RIMM. Today, as has been the case the past week the MJO phase space has been going crazy!  Take a Look!   http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml  That my friends spells real change!  It is a longer period western pacific tropical signal that has a pretty good linear relationship to our weather here in the Central Sierra, during the colder time of the year (Nov-March).  The MJO phase space by most global models gives you a look into the future…beyond the global models week 1 and 2. They are helpful in determining what weeks 3 and 4 might be like.  In this case…That a big change is coming the end of 3rd week of November through the end of the month. What kind of change? The MJO temperature composites indicate it will gradually turn colder over the far west beginning the latter part of the 3rd week of November into the end of the month, with increasing odds of snowfall in the Central Sierra week 4 or the period after the 21st through the end of the month.  Remember, this is a long-range outlook and not a detailed forecast like what the GFS or ECMWF guidance would show you. So the details are forth-coming but the change to cold is real!  For those that have subscribed to my by weekly letter, thank you.  I will have some special lead information that will be posted their in the letter and then on the Dweeb blog at a later date/time.

 

In the meantime…..its going to be Bikini weather along the coast for at least a week…..And warm with low 60s in Mammoth and possible low 80s for the Owens Valley in the not to distant future.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)

 

October Record Rainfall to be followed by a Dubious November….some interesting developments through….

Its November 1st, and the Dweebs are beginning to look at the hemispheric weather pattern more seriously. I get that NOAA’s winter outlook shows no biases one way or another for Central CA and for good reasons. We are pretty much ENSO neutral with only a weak bias to La Nina.  In looking at the last couple of days ONI, you would think that we would be heading back toward ENSO neutral with weaker trades. However, this morning, numbers have become positive again and hopefully will increase further.  Some teleconnections are pretty interesting with an anomalous amount of snow piling up over Northern Asia. The feed back into northern hemisphere weather is very significant on a climate scale. Large heat sinks like that can feed back to cold deep Polar Vortexes in that region that can set up down stream patterns that will influence weather patterns going forward into the end of the year.  Additionally, the QBO cycle which has been in it positive phase for some 15 month is getting old and will most likely flip during the up coming winter. The other important teleconnection is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which dramatically weakened in August and September. The surge of cool water extending east across the mid latitude’s between Asia and the central pacific suggests that the PDO is getting ready to strengthen again in the positive mode. This forces warmer then normal water along the pacific west coast and spreads it north and south. The other feature worth commenting on is the Solar minimum which we are rapidly heading into. The Sun has been flatlining more often than not the past year.

 

The short and medium range forecasts are pretty much dry for Mammoth Lakes except for the slight chance of some light snow/showers Sunday. Temperatures will warm up and become more seasonal later this week before cooling again late in the weekend. High temps will be mostly in the 50s this week and with temperature inversions mid week, lows in the 20s and 30s can be expected.

Looking at this mornings GFS and ECMWF, the models show very quiet weather conditions for the Central Sierra the next two weeks.  The Climate Forecast system as well as other longer range models show quiet weather the next several weeks and some for the next few months. I Look at those climate models un-enthusiastically.

 

Today I am very interested in what the MJO phase space charts are showing; A major “Highly amplified incursion into phase spaces 6-7-8 and 1.

  1. Precipitation relevance to phase space;  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/NDJ/combined_image.png
  2. Temperature relevance to phase space; http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/OND/combined_image.png

So this is what I am looking at now for the month of November. (subject to change)

MJO

The three global models of choice today are showing a weak MJO single for this week. (Week 1)  However, emerging in week 2, is a strong signal into phase space 6 propagating over time to phases 7, 8 and then 1.

If this signal is real, then the global models will adjust next week to become more highly amplified. Additionally, and again if the signal is real, we would expect the NAO to become strongly negative with a lot of high latitude blocking expected down the road. A big question will be, will the -NAO become west based or east based.  What this amounts to is where the cold is going to go, West or East. Best guess, “if the MJO signal is real”, stronger ridging over the far west weeks two and into three with cold in the east then retrogression spreads the cold west weeks 3 into week 4.   So the cold stormy weather would return during week 3 then into the end of the month.

 

The Dweeber…………………..:-)

 

 

 

 

 

Storm # 2 Leaves elevations below 8K pretty much snowless….Next system to bring a few snow showers Tuesday AM….Then a long break ahead….

Monday AM:

Storm Total for the Village at Mammoth 1.73 inches….This morning there is between 1 and 2 inches on the deck at the 8200 foot level.  What is outstanding is the total rain/snowfall in inches here at Mammothweather.com.

A whopping 8.02 for the month of October!  The Dweebs do not recall that much precipitation occurring during the month of October….  As a note…this moisture has been mostly subtropical in origin…

There is a small system that will brush through late tonight and into the morning hours for Tuesday bringing some snow showers. Amounts should be no more than an inch or so…

 

The simple answer to the question “what happened to all the snow” is that the cold air was delayed and most if not all of the precip was in the warm sector….Mammoth Weather picked up 1.73 inches of water so far. 99% of it was rain or rain/snow mix.   The good news is that Mammoth Mt as of 10:36 pm has picked up 2.34 inches of water so far.  That means that elevations above 10K has between 18 nd 24 inches of fresh snow.  The next system is favoring Northern CA.  The Dweebs expect some snow showers Tuesday morning…..then a break in the storms though at least next Friday.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)