Nice weather week ahead with the beginning of the week offering seasonal temperatures, then above normal temps for Thursday and Friday……The weekend looks partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler…..Next significant upper low to effect the high country about the middle of next week…..
Monday May 9, 2016
Posted at 11:47 am by Howard
Forecast on track with a little cooler day today. Some of the cooler air that dropped out of Western Canada last night will spread into the Great Basin, building surface pressures and providing for a gentle NE/SW gradient. Any clouds that develop this afternoon are due to some marginal instability that will blow off from Nevada toward the sierra crest and may provide for a few isolated showers late in the day. Note; Any showers that may develop are not due to snow melt! High pressure will build back in Wednesday afternoon for some warming, with a trend of warming through Friday. (Friday’s Highs Low 70s)
A weak trof with some cooling is still expected Saturday and Sunday. Highs Sunday in Mammoth in the low 60s
The Upper low that brought unseasonable cool and wet weather to the high country moved east last night, far enough east to allow for plenty of drying and lots of sunshine. Monday’s high should reach the mid 60s with lows tonight in the drier air below freezing….
Tomorrow, a weak back door cold front will kick up a little NE wind over the upper elevations. Temperatures will remain about the same as today. A little warmer weather can be expected Wednesday with much more warming Thursday and Friday. High in the low 70s.
The weekend outlook shows the bottom of a Trof moving through the sierra with the wet portion in the Pacific NW and extreme Northern CA. Expect the weekend to cool to the mid 60s with some high clouds and westerly breezes.
As highlighted above, the longer range models shows another vigorous Trof for the 2nd half of next week… This may be similar to what we had, last week.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…..
Active pattern will continue through the 1st week of May with several weather systems affecting the Eastern Sierra
Friday April 29, 2016
Posted at 6:32 am by Howard
Although we will have a nice break in the weather today Friday the 29th, a strong for April, back door cold front will sweep through Eastern CA Saturday morning. The system will have a strong North/South gradient, especially within the front itself. Moderate north winds in north prone wind areas can be expected with light snowfall along with colder temperatures. Fisherman should be aware of the potential for rough waters on Crowley Lake for the opener….with wind waves potentially 2 to 3 feet over the lower half of the lake.
Snowfall accumulations will be in the 1 to 3 inch range over the upper elevations, with less than an inch over a 24 hour period in the Long Valley area.
See NWS Comments below:
A low pressure will bring gusty winds with west to northwest winds increasing later this afternoon. The winds will become stronger and shift to the north tonight as a cold front passes through about sunrise, with gusts up to 40 mph, mainly near and east of US-395, with Sierra Ridge gusts up to 70 mph. These winds will produce choppy conditions on area Lakes through Saturday, especially over Western NV and Mono County, as winds shift to the northeast during the day and only decrease slightly. Anyone planning activities on area lakes late today into Saturday should keep posted to the latest forecasts and consider alternate plans.
Point Forecast for Crowley Lake:
Weather Outlook for first week of May:
The cold front that sweeps through Mono County Saturday will be followed by a chilly air mass that lingers into Sunday. As daytime temps rise Sunday, the air mass will become unstable with the chance of showers and thunderstorms developing mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. Not all areas will get rain or snow Sunday. Winds will be light on Sunday.
Monday and Tuesday will be fair with light breezes with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
The next storm will approach our area Thursday. This storm will have a strong for May, southern jet stream. Potentially, this will bring shower’s and thunderstorms with significant precipitation to the sierra. In that this is an outlook, check with the national weather services Forecast on that developing system for Thursday and Friday early next week as the Dweeb Report will possibly not update until May 9th.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)
Weather pattern will return to an active one for Mid Spring…with Wind….Rain/Snow and cooler weather……This pattern will likely continue into month’s end…..
Thursday April 21, 2016
Posted at 10:08 am by Howard
Today Madness is all about the upper low that may dig back into So-Cal for the weekend…..
The Dweebs need another day or even two to call it. An upper level low that digs back into Southern Ca would bring light snow to the high country and gusty NE winds over the weekend. But the Jury is still out on this one….
Monday AM Update:
Snow showers are expected today Monday with no measurable accumulation…. A short wave ridge will bring fair and warmer temps Tuesday…. Highs are expected in the upper 30s Monday and near 50 on Tuesday. Lows in the 20s
West Coast Adjustment wave axis in the mean is shifting slowly east over time. That means that although we may get a NW slider Wednesday and Thursday with periods and winds and snow/showers, the next system late in the weekend will drop south over the Great Basin. We can still get a few snow showers from that. However, most likely it looks like just some upslope cloudiness and wind Sunday and Monday.
In the meantime, the system and its impulses Wednesday and Thursday might bring some 4 to 7 inches over the upper elevations with 1 to 3 inches at the Village at Mammoth.
At the moment the fishing opener look fair for the Sunrise Event Saturday AM with light breezes. However, an inside slider Sunday will bring clouds and between light and moderate winds for the north through Long Valley.
In the longest range, there is the chance of a larger scale closed low effecting Southern and Central CA over the Mothers Day Weekend……………..
I will have a more detailed outlook on the fishing opener Wednesday Afternoon.
Dr. Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)
A more active pattern is being advertised by both Global Ensembles today in the short, medium and longer range. It is likely to begin this Friday as a vigorous cold front sweeps through the sierra Friday Night bringing mainly light to possibly moderate snowfall amounts above 9,000 feet. Another small system may bring snow showers Sunday night into early Monday and yet another system about next Wednesday followed by possibly another the following weekend.
Latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is now better handled by the two global models, the GFS and ECMWF. Looking at the Wednesday 12Z ECMWF and the 18Z GFS for the Sierra Crest near Mammoth Mt, it appears that “about” .4 to .7 inches of water EQ is reasonable as they both show pretty close to the same amount. Based on the above and about 10:1 ratio of snow to water at 10,000 feet….. Expect somewhere between 3 and 5 inches at the main lodge and 6 to 8 inches on the crest by Saturday mid-morning….
The snow level will begin about 9,000 and then lower to between the 6500 to 7000 foot level by late Friday night. A few inches of snowfall is possible off the roadways near the Village at Mammoth. Temperatures in the Town of Mammoth will cool from today’s mid 60s to the upper forties over the weekend in town. Moderate winds will come up out of the south over the crest Thursday afternoon then become stronger out of the west Friday and Friday night. Winds will be moderate again Saturday and diminish into the evening with lighter winds Sunday AM. Moderate winds will return Sunday PM into Monday over the crest.
Main Central Pacific Adjustment wave is located over the Aleutians with a secondary wave over California into the end of the month. The weakness in the mean may shift into the Western Great Basin over time. This will allow for small spring storms on and off for a week to ten days.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)