Mammoth Weather
Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Beautiful Clear Day in the High Country with 12 inches of new at the Main Lodge with additional over the Crest……Next Splitting System Turkey Day!
Monday November 21, 2011
Quick Update:
Not much new this morning except the snow that fell over the weekend. Expect a couple of nice days ahead with a slow warm up…then the next splitting system moves SE Wednesday afternoon into Thanksgiving. There is no confidence in any new snowfall forecast until we get closer in time to Thursday.
Some Highlights though….. The last month of October showed more precipitation then the precious year (2010). However we will be far behind for the month of November if we do not get a lot more snow for this month.
1. Big late season Hurricane now moving west off the coast of Mexico!
2. Very cold Temps over the state of Alaska. (-40 in Fairbanks) This cold is headed for the Northern Gulf of Alaska by Thursday…
Will have an Mjo Update Tomorrow…….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Snow Continues to Fall in the High Country…..Back of Front Just Moving Through Fresno at 8:30am
Sunday November 20, 2011
5:30pm Update: Well….. all yea had to do was double the QPF and it would have been right on! 
Final Tally: 12 inches at the main Lodge
10 inches at the village
About 16 over the crest.
Not to Shabby for a storm that was supposed to split with Mammoth supposedly getting only a few inches, just a few days ago.
Like the Dweebs have been saying…..this is the Winter of the Humble Pie for the weather forecaster……. the Dreaded Split flow Blues…..
There will be many more blown snowfall forecasts this month and next……Best forecasts will be the ones within 24 to 36 hours….and even some of those will bust!
Get ready for more frustration…….as the next splitting system arrives as early as Late Wednesday……
The Dweeber………………………..:-)
Light snow is falling here at the Village at Mammoth. About two inches on the Snow Plot. Mammoth Mt Reported 4 inches at 7:00am and now coming up on 8:40am it looks like the Sesame plot has about 5 inches now. The back of the active front appears to be moving through Fresno at the moment and so there will probably be another 2 to 4 hours of light to possibly moderate snowfall. That may be enough time for another 2 to 4 inches on Mammoth Mt….It appears that most of the precipitation should be “over-with” by about 12:00pm today with Snow showers continuing through the afternoon and diminishing early this evening.
The main Vort center and dynamics are moving SE down the coast. The Vort Center will pass mostly south of Mammoth and so part II of the storm will not get into the Central Sierra.
The new Sunday 12z GFS just in has the next upstream system for Thanksgiving sheering and splitting as it comes onshore. So…..do not get your hopes up too much at this time for a lot of snow. It may end up a similar situation like the last one…….”that forecasters will not really have a handel on the QPF with any confidence until some 24 to 36 hours before the event”.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Sunday System is Now Forecasted to Get Much Closer to The Coast……Good News…..4 to 8 inches possible on Mammoth Mtn Sunday…………..
Saturday November 19, 2011
Short term and Global Models are trending further east with the next short wave…..This means that Mammoth Lakes and Mammoth Mountain will get more then just a few showers. CRFC has beefed up the QPF to about .8 for Huntington lake and about .7 for Yosemite.
This means that over the crest…some 6 to 8 inches may fall with 4 to 6 at the main lodge and some 2 to 4 inches in town. This is just an estimate. However….we will be getting more snow then what was earlier forecasted. Coastal communities will get more as well, with an inch + possible in the coastal mountains Central Ca south into SO-Cal.
This may be the dreaded La Nina Split flow winter, making humble the weatherman who has had it so easy the past several years.
The next upstream system is a major storm but the models are splitting it as well. Best Snowfall forecasts will have to be made within 24 to 36 hours of the storm!
Now back by Popular Demand “The return of the Split Flow Blues! “Created by the Dweeber”
(Sung to the Tune of My Mighty GTO)
For you younger folks that do not know the tune….have your parents or Grand Parents in their 50s and 60s sing it to you.
I got the split flows blues…..yea on on my mind…..
Systems splittin’ off the west coast…. wastin’ all my time….
If it doesn’t snow soon, I’m gonna loose my mind….. yea yea.
These storms are splittin’ up, breaking up….whimpen out….split flow blues….
Next Verse:
I’m gonna save all my money……Gonna save my dimes……
I’m gonna catch the next plane….where the powder is fine…..
I Got my DC’s and Super S’s packed…..I’m Dreamin of- the- time….yea yea…
West coast storms are splittin’ up… breaking up…. drying out….. split flow blues.
More Later……………..:-)
The Dweeber……………………………….:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
