Storm System Currently moving into high country looks wetter for tonight…..Heavy Snowfall expected Tonight and most of the day Wednesday……Weekend shaping up to be cold but drier now into Monday….More snow possible next week….

Traveling over the weekend…..will update Monday night…..

Platinum Powder Alert” for this Saturday Morning

Thursday night….everything on track….. Heaviest snow fall will occur when upper flow back from the WSW Tomorrow afternoon……Eastern Sierra Blizzard….

Storm Warning through 1100AM Saturday.

Now the rest of the story…..Significant Atmospheric River possible for next Wednesday….

 

 

 

Wednesday AM:

After a break this morning, snowfall rates will increase again this afternoon in a colder air mass through about midnight tonight. The Dweebs expect another 5 to 7 inches in town by 1:00AM Thursday. Expect another foot on Mammoth Mt. This snow will be lighter than last night sierra cement.

On Thursday, the main cold core low will be along the North Coast as the upper jet pivots NW/SE. This sets up a windy blustery pattern here in Mammoth Thursday afternoon/night until the upper flow backs from the west or WSW Friday. Snowfall rates pick up later Thursday night and continue through Friday night. A winter storm warning is in effect for this period. Keep in mind that snowfall will be of very light density and any wind can blow it around and create poor visibility creating dangerous driving conditions. Friday is not the day to travel heading north from Mammoth.  A Platinum Powder Alert is in effect for Saturday AM with a foot or better of snow on Mammoth Mt at 10,000 feet at ratios of 15:1.  The forecast is for up to 2 feet of “Angelic Powder” for Saturday Morning.  Highs in the 20s in town and teens on Mammoth Mt.

All toll….Mammoth Mt stands to pick up 5 feet of snow over the crest….The multi storm total for the Tuesday night through Saturday AM period

Sunday may be a blue bird day. Fair as well Monday…  New storm moves in Tuesday night and the hits keep on coming….:-)

 

The Dweeber…………….:-)

 

 

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New twist this morning in the pattern will provide for rain changing to snow later this evening then heavy snowfall expected tonight through Wednesday.  Although a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect officially, full on winter storm conditions will develop by Midnight tonight well into the day Wednesday. Snowfall amounts look to be 12 to 18 inches in town at the 8000 foot level by Wednesday late Afternoon and between 2 and 3 feet of snow on Mammoth Mt by Wednesday Night.  This is a change in the thinking from yesterday where only 4 to 8 inches was expected in town.

The “QPF”  Quantitative precipitation forecast output from the models put less emphasis on the Thursday Night-Friday storm now as far as the amount of snowfall as compared to the period late tonight through Wednesday Night. However, the Thursday Night Friday system will have lighter density snow and gusty winds,  so travel conditions may be impacted Thursday night into Friday due to blowing and drifting snow. Thus a winter storm watch is warranted for Thursday afternoon into Friday Night.

The good news is that the weekend looks pretty good weather wise. For those that want to get some light dry powder, you may find pretty good weather with some snow showers mainly Saturday. Be sure to carry chains during your Friday night trek, as the snow level will be quite low into Saturday AM.

The Dweebs expect a good 2 feet plus in town over the next 72 hours and between 4 and 5 feet over the crest….

The First half of next week should be Fab!

 

More snowfall is expected next week as early as mid-week…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

 

 

New Long Wave Trough developing over the Eastern Pacific likely to persist for sometime….First system will begin Tuesday then linger into Friday with long wave reloading thereafter….

Late Sunday Night:

It is subtle, however the newer models runs seem to be developing more southerly flow with this first system Tuesday into Wednesday AM as the system is taking on more of a negative tilt.  So as a result, there is likely to be more shadowing with less snowfall east of the sierra crest. The National Weather Service has dropped the WSW to a winter weather advisory.  The main shot of this precipitation is likely over the sierra foothills and along the south facing exposures, according to this evenings guidance.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been hoisted for Tuesday afternoon beginning at 1:00PM thru Wednesday at 4:00PM

4 to 8 inches of snow is expected in the Town of Mammoth with 12 to 18 inches on Mammoth Mt by Wednesday evening.

Westerly flow returns later in the week with better orographics and heavier snowfall later Thursday into Friday.

This will cut back to some degree the snowfall totals over the next 7 days, however amounts will still be impressive….

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Saturday’s light rain and snow did little to enhance the snowpack over the Eastern Sierra. However, that should change as a cold upper low sets up residence over the Eastern Pacific.  Looking the Sunday 18Z GFS, the upper tough was located about 145west with the cold core very large and expansive. So not only is this system cold but it also has a large enough pool to last several days once it gets to the central west coast.

500 MB temps now are at  up to -40C with 700Mb temps into the mid -20sC   Lots of energy!

The upstream ridge behind the cold Trof builds over the top of the system for a while and acts to cut it off. However, not before it is sets up close enough along the west coast! All forecast models indicate that Southwest to westerly flow will dominate the pattern into next Friday! So this storm becomes stationary for a while and that makes it quite unpredictable as far as the timing of the more significant waves of moisture that flow into the sierra at this distance in time. There is a lot of energy indicated by the models behind this trough (trof). The whole pattern is highlighted by a persistent long wave Trof that may last through the upcoming week or longer.  The main message here is that forecasters have been watching this storm for sometime now and confidence is increasing that we will be in quite cold and snowy pattern through this Friday or possibly longer depending upon which model you believe. a good 3 to 6 feet is possible on Mammoth Mt this week with between 1.5 to 3 feet in town by Friday

GFS has next weekend cold and sort of showery Saturday and dry weather possible Sunday.

The ECMWF (Euro) Ensemble has the Trof reloading time and time again with almost non stop snowfall through the 24th. Wowie Zowie!

 

Here is the long range QPF by both Models for the Central Sierra on Sunday’s model run in inches of water with snow to water ratios of at least 10:1, and at times possibly 13:1 or greater.

  1. GFS:  deterministic 18z Sunday Run the upcoming 10 day period.   7 inches of water in the San Joaquin drainage
  2. ECMWF: 12Z Deterministic has 7 to 9 inches in the SJD
  3. Sundays 12Z ECMWF EPD Control has 7 to 9 inches in the SJD while the 15 day shows some 15 inches!
  4.  The ECMWF 12Z EPD Ensemble mean has about 7 inches

The upper jet approaches our area Tuesday AM and so expect the winds to begin cranking in the early morning.

 

It is likely to be quite chilly by Wednesday with highs in the 30s but the coldest air will arrive next Friday into Saturday with highs in the upper 20s.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

Fair Weather Ridge will provide warming the next two days with the next weather system taking a trek a bit further north……Weekend looks unsettled and breezy with light snowfall…

 

(Get ready for the storm that will not die)

Amounts over a 6 day period beginning Tuesday will range from 2 to 5 feet. The storm will begin on the warm side but will chill through the week….

This is a series of waves attached to a mother low that will park off the coast next week.

Still keeping the faith for a miracle March!   (176 total inches)

UPDATE TONIGHT:

 

Thursday AM:

The Subtropical jet is dominating the WX pattern with periods of gusty winds and unsettled weather. This is expected through Sunday. Although snowfall in the Town of Mammoth will not be heavy, there may be 3 to 5 inches of snow with some 6 to 12 inches over the sierra crest between Saturday afternoon and noon Sunday. The snowfall will be heavier and more moisture leaden than recent storms.

The mid-week storm is still looking good with both subtropical and polar jets being coupled. I expect several feet of snow during the second half of next week. Although there are still several storm’s in the picture this month, the 15 Day ECMWF EPS shows up to 7 inches of water or an average of 70 inches of snow by 23rd. We will need quite a bit more to get close to the 176 inches so not looking all that promising but still possible.  The good news is that the bulls-Eye for the 15 days is over the Northern part of the Southern Sierra……

 

The Dweeber……………………..:-)

 

Wednesday PM:

 

Here is the latest QPF update for the next 10 days from the Deterministic models for the area around or just west of the Mammoth Crest:

 

GFS:       5 inches  10:1   50 inches of snow

ECMWF: 7 inches  10:1  70 inches of snow

 

PS: The official snow total at the main lodge from the weekend storm was 50.5 inches.

So 125.5 more inches of snow to tie the miracle march of 1991. That may be tough…we need at least 2.5 more storms like last weekends to get close or more smaller storms!

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Tuesday Afternoon:

ECMWF (European Model) Coming in pretty wet now for the Monday night-Friday storm next week.  QPF suggests 6 to 7 inches of precip…..or 5 to 6 feet over the crest by Friday the 16th.  Again, the Trof and its associated polar jet to become confluent with subtropical jet and its environment Monday night, then on and off through Friday. Should make for some explosive Jet O’ Genesis!  Yes..this is another slow-moving developing pattern.  This system is not as cold as last-weekends storm but may finish some what cold…  The Dweebs still think the Miracle March is possible…. Need 176 inches at Main Lodge in March to tie it….

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Mammoth will enjoy a few days of spring like temps with highs well into the 40s today and Wednesday. As the upper ridge pushes east, subtropical high level cloudiness will overcast our skies Tuesday night and Wednesday. The next few systems this week look weaker now with only some light snow showers expected Thursday evening. Temperatures will cool this weekend back into the 40s and there will be windy periods over the Sierra Crest.  Snow showers are possible Friday through Saturday with the most organized system heading more north now and weaker at that. Expect anywhere between 3 and 6 inches of snow top to bottom through Sunday night with 1 to 3 inches in town.

Next storm will be early next week and it still looks strong with the possibility of footage in the high country. Some of the new model solutions tend to phase both subtropical and polar jets together by Mid-Week.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)