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Archive for April, 2011
Chilly Weekend to be Followed by Above Normal Temps Next Week……Models Not In Agreement Beyond Next Friday…..
Friday April 29, 2011
This will be the last post until the 10th of May. It appears that after a chilly weekend all medium range models bring in a pretty good long wave upper ridge to the golden state. An inverted surface trofsets up along the coast for offshore flow as well at times. Temps will rise into the low 60s by mid week. However…..this weekend will be a chilly one for the fisher folks with north winds on the lake 10 to 20mph. Day time mighsin the 50s and early am lows in the 20s. Here in Mammoth it will stay in the 40s until Monday when temps take the hike into the 50s then 60s by Tuesday. it will be a dry week until temps get warm enough for some afternoon convection. Then the possibility of some summer like afternoon showers later in the week over the higher terrain.
The long range is different between the EC and the gfs. One has ridging and the other trofing. So at this time you will all just have to wait to see how it all pans out! Will update May 10th….
Have a great week………….Adios!………….:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Do Big Sierra Winters End Abruptly?……or do they just fade away……..
Wednesday April 27, 2011
The End Is Near! At least for the great winter of 2011! One last strong cold front in the picture early Friday morning before the weather finally turns warmer then normal next week with good runoff potential. Warmer then normal next week yes! One last cold front? We’ll see! We usually get another system or two in the Spring in May and June….even during La Nina Winters. However, this La Nina was anything but typical! After this week…there should be some big relief from the persistent cold and unsettledness of this season.
In the meantime, our current progressive upper ridge will peak today with temps reaching into the 50s. 58 degrees is our normal high for this time of the year here at the Village at Mammoth with a low of 32 at the same. The climotology now is usually a bit cooler in the lower elevations town at night.
The next system is a windy one with a pretty significant cold pool with the lowest HT500-1000mb thicknesses (520s) in the pacific northwest sliding mainly to the southeast. The right rear upper jet entry region presents a glancing blow to the Mammoth area associated with a Vort center sliding over us Friday…inside slider fashion. So a few snow showers are possible but no big deal. Winds will gust in the 80 MPH range over the crest and 40mph here in town Thursday afternoon and especially during the evening hours pre FROPA. In the systems wake…..some very chilly air to make the fisherman and fisher-woman feel alive. Early Saturday morning at sunrise on the lake and along the shore line, temps will be in the teens! There well may be some light NNE breezes as well Saturday Am so plan on some shelter from that direction just in case. Hot Coffee Anyone? The breezes will diminish in the afternoon.
Outlook Next Week:
At the moment, the teleconnections for the NAO next week is that it going to be somewhat negative, with the PNA becoming more neutral. That is favoring higher heights along the southern and central west coast with warmer weather here. In fact, the weather looks very nice next week with temps some 5 to 8 degrees above normal. (Low to possibly mid 60s). However, last nights 06z run of the GFS had another cold system coming into the west the weekend after this one…..IE Moms Day. For the time being, the Dweebs are Poo-Pooing this system for how far south it digs….until more model runs wash through the ensembles. I think that the most likely scenario is that it will turn windy and cooler around Moms Day with generally a dry system.
Updates this Friday….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Last Cold Front of April to Move Through Early Friday Morning…Strong Gusty Winds Thursday Afternoon w/Slight chance of showers Thursday Night……Fishing Opener Forecast Thursday AM.
Tuesday April 26, 2011
Quick Update:
Strong northwest flow aloft to continue today with windy condition over the crest and breezy in town. Temps to rise into the upper 40s today for the town. Next Cold front headed into Mammoth early Friday morning. Strong winds to return Thursday Afternoon into the night and possibly into Friday morning.
528dm 1000-500 thickness pool nudges into northern NV Friday morning. Strong griedent Thursday night for Mammoth…a few showers possible. This may be the last Cold front for some time. Wx trends warmer Sunday into Monday as Inverted surface trof takes over Ca early next week. The weather trends even warmer next week (60s) as systems are more confined to the pacific northwest then Ca. Spring may finally come next week!!! Let the run off Begin!
The Dweeber……………………………….:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
