Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Archive for April, 2011
Weather to become windy, cooler and unsettleled Wednesday with snow showers…Fab Weekend coming up with warmer then normal temps…..
Tuesday April 12, 2011
Discussion:
A series of impulses within a fast, low amplitude upper flow will allow periods of showers briefly from Central Ca then mostly northward through Thursday. The nose of 150 knot upper jet will move into Central Ca Wednesday bringing strong upper mountain winds, snow showers and much cooler temps during the day to Mammoth Lakes. Temps will begin to moderate on Thursday with lighter winds for the residential areas Thursday.
WX pattern over the Pacific:
A strong REX Block developing near the dateline by Friday with a closed upper high over the high Lat’s will force west coast heights to rise going into the weekend resulting in beautiful central west coast weather with warmer then normal temps. Expect high in Mammoth in the low 60s by Saturday/Sunday.
Thereafter, the upper flow de-amps and the upper jet settles south again into Central Ca Monday into the Tuesday with quite breezy conditions over the upper elevation Monday and especially Tuesday with a slight chance of showers. It will be cooler as well the early part of next week compared to the weekend.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………..:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Sunny Skies for the Eastern Sierra with a short wave ridge over head……It’s offical, 606.5 inches for new benchmark and 41 year snowfall record…..4th wettest year since 1970!
Sunday April 10, 2011
This weeks storm put us over the top; (606.5 inches of snow)(Patrol-Site)
606.5 inches is a lot of snow! Also of significance is the water content at 68.73 inches tying the winter of 1986 for the 4th wettest since 1970. However….the winter of 1986 was more noted for rain and Sierra Cement as only 432.6 inches of snow fell that winter. That was the year that the Sherwin’s Slid on the 19th of February I believe. It was the classic “Pineapple Connection”.
Weather Discussion:
Key 500mb Height Anomalies in the 3 day means showing long wave positions as follows:
Negative height anomaly at 140W……Positive Anomaly at dateline and Western pacific negative height anomaly at 140E north of Japan.
Key eastern pacific height anomaly is too far west to promote significant precip into the Central Sierra. However there will be a period of strong winds from early Wednesday morning throughout the day and evening. Both EC and GFS has this idea.
By Thursday, the upper jet will be pushed northward by rising heights from the south. A rather protracted WSW fetch along with the upper jet will bring wet weather to the pacific northwest. Although there are differences between the EC and the GFS as is even more common during the change of the seasons…..our pattern will more likely be one of periods of warming and cooling along with periods of wind along those lines. The Dweebs feel that there will be another cold storm before the month is over as both 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks still have normal precip for the Mammoth area through the 24th of the month.
It think that it is safe to say that our base has peaked for the great winter of 2011! Congradualtions….you all survived!
The Dweeber…………………………..;-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Mid level and upper low stacked very near Mammoth this morning…..snow showers should increase as low drifts south today…..PC-Milder WX Sunday….
Friday April 8, 2011
Nice little storm left between a foot and a foot and a half over the upper elevations Thursday. The wrap-a-round should begin by the afternoon with another couple of inches possible. Temps are about as cold as they every get this time of the year with both near record high-low max-mins. Total water EQ near the village was .76
Ski patrol raised their totals for the year to 597.5 inches of snow on their plot. The Dweebs are not sure if that included all the snowfall from yesterday. We are excitingly close to the 600 inch benchmark!
As the Dweebs have indicated in the past……La Nina Winters tend to not linger into the late Spring like El Nino winters. Last year it snowed right on through the Spring and even into early Summer. That is unlikely this year. There will be an increasing possibility of above normal temps in May……Right on through the Summer of 2011!
As compared to last year, this Summer should be quite a bit warmer with more thunderstorms then last Summer. The good news is that like last Summer, the forest is in very good shape with lots of water to inhibit the rapid growth of forest fires.
As temperatures go from below normal to normal then above…..the mid to late Spring WX will promote rapid run off with spectacular waterfalls, dangerously high and fast flowing rivers throughout multi county areas on both sides of the crest.
Forecast and Outlook:
With the near record cold upper low exiting the region this weekend…..Unsettled WX to last through Saturday with milder weather expected Sunday. The longer range shows the next migratory short wave dampening as it translates through the west coast. There will be one more short wave that “may” bring some showers Tuesday night/Wednesday. Then……..the big change in the GFS extended over the past several days shows a change from earlier runs in the week. The old idea favored a new and progressive long wave trof effecting Northern and North Central Ca. Now there is an adjustment westward of the high latitude blocking high (in the mean) centered to just south of the Bering Sea. This is similar to the position of this block last December with one big-big difference! It is now April and not December. As a result, we will most likely ridge up the end of the week instead of getting into a wet-wet pattern. What the GFS has done is to come more around to the ECMWF earlier solution. There is no doubt about it! It is April and although La Nina is weakening, its effects are still effecting global WX patterns and we are likely witnessing the workings of an end of a long-long, wet-wet winter!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
