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Archive for April, 2011
Active Pattern To Continue Most Of The Week……Cooler then normal temps and periods of light snow over the highest elevations, on and off
Monday April 18, 2011
A persistent west to east upper flow through the central west coast coupled with subtropical moisture will keep the weather unsettled this new week. The challenge is in forecasting the breaks between short waves. 8000 ft temps will be mostly in the 40s for highs and 20s/low 30s at night.
At the moment it is showery here in Mammoth with .05 of rain in the bucket this morning. It should stay showery today with decreasing showers after the FROPA later this afternoon. The snow level today will be way up there above 8500 but then lower to 7500 this evening. No significant accumulation in town expected with 3 to 5 inches possible over the crest by this evening.
Tomorrow Tuesday look like a break with short wave ridging moving in, during the afternoon. So the WX will improve as the day goes on and it will be warmer. By Wednesday the next wetter/stronger system heads our way and so by the afternoon snow and rain will pick up again. I have not seen any of the 12Z global models yet this morning, but the new 12z WRF is pretty wet for our neck of the woods. It is painting up to 2 inches of QPF for the crest between Wednesday afternoon and Friday at 18Z. WX fans might want to follow up on this one as the upper flow is more cyclonically curved, as the main UVM comes into play. Additionally, although Wednesday’s snow level seems to be above 8000 feet…..there is plenty of QPF in the WRF after midnight Wednesday into Thursday with the 500-1000 thickness lowering to 546dm. And so a snow level around 6000 is possible if the models is correct bringing at the least, a few inches to the town the following 6 to 12 hours. Again this is just the opperational 12z wrf run from Monday morning…..
The next break appears to be about Friday. with breezy weather and a slight chance of precip next weekend….followed by a stretch of nice weather the early part of the following week….subject to change of course.
The long range has something special for us the last weekend of the month! 😉
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Zonal flow pattern in the 3 to 5 day means to bring periods of unsettled WX to the Eastern Sierra next week…..Monday looks wet with over 6 inches of new snow possible over the crest by evening…..
Saturday April 16, 2011
A few isolated snowshowers could occur today over the crest.
What the Dweebs are expecting is a series of impulses that will advance southeastward through BC today over a long wave ridge then south into California over the next two days. The moisture will shift south as the upper flow becomes cyclonically curved over Ca Monday morning and the weather will become increasing wet and windy. The deep layered moisture over the west Sunday into Monday will be energized over the Sierra by Monday Am with moderate precipitation with up to an inch possible by Monday night over the Sierra Crest. Snowfall amounts over the crest may get close to a foot while more Sierra cement conditions are expected over the lower slopes Monday with low H2O to Snow ratios. The heaviest amounts will be over the Northern Sierra with up to 2 inches of water EQ by Monday night up there.
Highs this weekend in the 50s then 40s Monday. Lows in the low 30s cooling to the 20 by Monday.
Strong gusty winds are expected Monday.
Expect another storm before the week is over…..the weather looks pretty unsetteled over all.
The Dweeber………………:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Not so Fab weekend coming up with more upper elevation wind than earlier throught…..Northwest flow aloft with embeded impulses to plague Mammoth for the forseeable future….
Thursday April 14, 2011
Quick update:
Changes to earlier thinking include a much flatter upper flow into the Sierra with more moisture in the upper levels. A now NW flow pattern will allow several impulses that will bring periods of wind as will as light precipitation. Some upper elevation snow and lower elevation rain is expected about every other day. Winds will be more on than off…..Temps will be mild with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and lower 30s. Winds will range in the 15 to 30 MPH range in town with winds in the upper elevations 40 to 60+ MPH at times.
Remember it’s April and there will be many more “Fools Days” ahead weatherwise then just the first! 😉
The Dweeber…………………………………:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
