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Archive for April, 2011
Dreaded Northwest Upper Jet Headed into Northern Ca Tonight……High Wind Watch in Effect for Monday……Showers to continue through Monday Ngt
Sunday April 24, 2011
The Dreaded northwest jet will pay a visit Monday to the eastern sierra. Given the time of year and climatology…it could be very windy with this pattern Monday. Showers will continue through Monday night. Winds to 130mph over the crest and gusts to 70mph here locally. The weather will mellow out Tuesday with some very nice weather by Wednesday…..
Discussion:
A short wave upstream was moving toward the west coast this AM while the westerlies continue to move 700mb moisture into the Sierra. While the deepest moisture is certainly along the Ca/OR boarder, there is enough moisture being pushed up over the west side and over the crest to keep showers going here in the Mammoth area. Over the past 24 hours, 27 hundreds have accumulated in the snow melt/rain tip bucket and Mammoth MT reporting another 2 to 4 inches of new. What is interesting is that there have been no radar returns over the Sierra at 37.5N. With the short wave traversing our area today, showers will likely continue.
Tonight/Monday:
An unseasonably strong upper jet will back to the northwest…then will nose into California tonight with another surge of moisture getting entrained to reach the Mammoth area Monday afternoon. Winds at and above 700mb are some 3.5 standard deviation above normal for this time of the year. The surface gradient is forecasted to tighten ahead of the cold front with some indication of an inversion near the crest in the model soundings. Strong winds are therefore expected Monday as they peak toward evening. With precip on the west side along with an isentropic surface with the cold front…..winds could be a real problem in the usual areas like Crowley Lake below Magee Canyon. The pattern is a familur one this time of year for high winds along the lee of the sierra. However, the upper jet max is probably a couple hundred miles north then ideal for the classic Crowley Lake Buster. Well See……..:-)
Long Range:
A series of trofs will continue to visit the west coast through the end of the month and into May. However, there will be some very nice periods of weather in-between!
The Dweeber……………………:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
More Snowfall on Mammoth Mountain with over a 1/2 Foot on the ground of New……WX to remain unsettled this week….
Thursday April 21, 2011
Snowmelt/rain tip bucket still busy this morning tipping off another 6 tenths by 8:30am with close to 4 inches of new snow here near the village and about 6 inches on the hill. This storm certainly was wetter then the models indicated. Again April is one of the worst months for model verification.
Of interest yesterday….then temperature spread between Bishop and Mammoth mid day was 35 degrees…..which usually qualifys for some pretty good wind inbetween the two areas!
The overall patten is still highlighted by a fast quasi zonal flow pattern across the Pacific. The Dweebs do not see any significant change in this pattern at least through the end of this month. Mean HT 500heights do drift a bit higher between 570dm and 576dm in the upcoming week so the systems may end up dryer for Mono County with milder temps….however that too remains to be seen.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………………..:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Zonal Flow Across The Pacific…..Unsettled WX to continue next 5 days…..
Tuesday April 19, 2011
With the upper jet entering the west coast between 38 and 40 north, and no blocking in the Eastern Pacific, the current unsettled pattern looks likely to continue until further notice. Periods of showers, wind and below normal temps are the call more on than off through early next week. However, today Tuesday there will be a break with lots sunshine followed by increasing clouds this afternoon. Expect today’s high temps in town in the low 50s and lows in the 20s and low 30s. Expect light winds at 8000 feet today with moderate winds over the upper elevations….. Tomorrow, the Dweebs expect rain/snow by afternoon with the snow level above 8000 feet.
Current wind conditions at 8:35am……The Crest was gusting to 45mph.
Outlook: Snow showers possible Thursday morning with high-temps on Thursday in the 40s. There could be 2 to 4 inches of fresh snow Wednesday night into Thursday am on Mammoth Mtn.
The Dweebs are very interested to see what happens during May. As, if this pattern lingers well into May that would be quite unusual for La Nina Winters here in the Central Ca/Eastern Sierra.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………….:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
