Archive for year 2018

First week of fall to end on a Summery note then cooler, breezy weather developing over the weekend…..First week of October looks cooler than normal with showers possible…..

Dweebs were back at it this morning with our first fall forecast. Of note, the MJO is amplifying in phase space 8 and is expected to track east into phase space 1. This area of tropical forcing moves through the Western Hemisphere and Africa next week. Highlights of this action now, are the intense mesoscale clusters developing from the ITZ, drenching parts of the Hawaiian Islands.  In looking at the IR Satellite & 200-hpa Velocity Potential Anomalies for the 25th of September, this is possibly in reaction to a developing Wave-1 configuration and strong upper divergence centered SE of the Hawaiian islands over the ITZ. This is likely in relation to the developing MJO projection into Phase Space 8.

This would be classic Pineapple Connection, a form of an AR) for west coast except that it is late September and the results from the jet stream are much weaker. However, they are substantial enough to build Upper High now off the coast of the Pacific NW, Northwestward, forcing the Negative Phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation blocking pattern (-EPO). This results in the undercutting of the westerlies and a relatively minor closed or cutoff low for Northern California Sunday. Sensible weather for Mammoth will be breezy, cooler weather and a chance of showers early next week.  As a note, There is a TS that will track up the Baja Coast this weekend and as a long shot, get entrained within the Trof off the west coast. This pattern is only remotely possible at this time as model simulations do not favor it at any significant degree…..However, it is possible.  San Diego would benefit at best, but more likely northern Baja CA to AZ and possibly Las Vegas early next week.

Longer Range outlook for October favors periods of cooler than normal weather with some possible cold storms, during the month. Mammoth will likely get a few periods of snowfall during the month of October.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)

Last week of Fall to fair and mild with dry weather expected through the 24th.

9/15/2018

 

Last week of summer to finish on a quiet note with season temperatures and breezy weather at times….Some high clouds expected on Tuesday along with some stronger breezes. High temps this week will range from the mid 60s to low 70s…..Lows in the 30s and 40s.

Next update on the 24th….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

 

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The Jet stream over the pacific NW will sag south into Northern California the next few days bringing gusty winds tonight into Wednesday night. Temperatures more seasonal for this time of the year will develop by Thursday and into Friday with some warming returning over the weekend. Nighttime lows will cool well down into the 30s at resort levels. A modest warm up is expect this weekend and into next week.

 

Hurricane Florence is going to be a big problem for forecasters and South Atlantic states governor’s as the latest modeling shows the storm losing its steering winds, prior to landfall…. Good luck in predicting where this one goes!

 

The Dweeber…………..:-(

Mammoth can expect beautiful warm weather this weekend under the effects of a Subtropical ridge centered to the Southwest of the Crest….The ridge weakens in a few days as troughing sets in over the pacific NW…..So cooler, breezy weather is expected midweek…

Its a beautiful weekend in Mammoth. Clear skies, above normal temps and light breezes can be expected to continue through Monday.  High temperatures in the upper 70s and lows in the 40s are the expected diurnal temperature spread.  Summer weather is expected to continue with another warm up the following weekend after a cooler breezy midweek.

High temps mid week will cool to the low 70s by Thursday with lows expected in the upper 30s.

 

El Nino Modoki still in the cards…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)