Archive for year 2018

The Long Extended Heat Wave over Northern and Central CA is coming to an end later this Month as the Excessive Hot Summer Pattern Breaks Down…….More Seasonal Temperatures are expected by next weekend or at the latest the following week….Autumn chill to arrive…..just in time for Meteorological Fall….

Unrelated to mammoth weather….Interesting discussion on Hurricane Lane now south of Hawaii from NHC this morning;

 

The initial motion estimate is 350/5 knots, which shows a northward
turn has occurred this evening. Lane continues to be steered toward
the north along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is
located to the east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to
show a northward motion, or even a motion toward just east of due
north, as the ridge builds south and possibly southwest of Lane.
The latest track has shifted to the right of the previous forecast
through the next 48 hours. This more closely follows the latest
consensus track guidance. Note that on this track, Hurricane Lane
continues to approach the Main Hawaiian Islands, so there is no
reason to believe that anyone is safe in the warning area. Assuming
Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before, or after, it hits the
islands, Lane is forecast to come increasingly under the influence
of the low level easterlies and begin tracking westward. Again, the
exact time when this will occur remains highly uncertain, and only
a small delay in this decoupling could bring Lane farther north.
This will produce considerably worse conditions over the islands.
Even if Lane remains along the forecast track, significant impacts
are expected in the Hawaiian Islands.

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the
forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly
indicate Lane’s center making landfall over any of the islands, this
remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well
away from the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind
through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration
areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands.
Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise
buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf. This could lead to severe beach erosion.

 

 

 

Wednesday Evening….

 

Forecast remains on track with a slow cool down. Today’s high in Mammoth was 76 degrees with an overnight low near the village of 48.  However Long Valley and Crestview were in the low to mid 30s……

Parts of Mono County will have its first freezing temperatures this weekend or at the latest early next week.  Temperatures will in general will be cooler than normal next week with highs in Mammoth down as low as the upper 60s and upper 80s in Bishop.

Overall WX pattern driven by upper ridging over central pacific and downstream troughing odd the coast of the pacific NW…..  Meteorological Autumn begins the first day of September…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….

 

 

 

For what may be the *hottest Summer on record for many areas of the far west is coming to a close later this Month.  A combination of troughing in the pacific northwest and the Hot Continental Subtropical Ridge over the far west will slowly work its way to the Ohio Valley according to the 5 days means by Week 2. This indicates cooler days ahead, especially during the end of the last week of August. The process will not happen overnight, but will take place over the coming two weeks…..It will be especially noticeable the end of August as an anomalous Trof from the Gulf of AK effects California.

Sundays high in Mammoth was 83 degrees and it was 103 At the Bishop AP. Highs in Bishop will still reach near 100 Monday but will pull back to the 90s as the week progresses.  Normal highs in Bishop this time of the year are in the low 90s.   I expect low 90s by the end of this week.  Mammoth Lakes highs will cool to the low to mid 70s by the end of this week. No precipitation in sight….Weeks 2 cool down may be associated with a strong Zephyr and some freezing over night lows in the high country.

It will warm back up in September…..

 

*Climo Data will be tabulated in the coming weeks….

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

Another day of Scattered Thunderstorms then drier and warmer weather expected for the weekend…..

There has been a nice few days of thunderstorms in the high country with hail yesterday over the Lakes Basin.  Expect one more day of it today, then a much drier and warmer airmass sets in. Strong height rises occur Friday and Saturday much like the pattern we have had all summer that has been anomalously amplified across the CONUS.

El Nino is expected to strengthen this fall and Winter….  Lets hope it is not a *Modoki El Nino!  Highs will be in the 80s this weekend with lows in the 40s.

*The El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific . Associated with this SSTA pattern is distinct warming and cooling which effect teleconnections very differently from teleconnection patterns of the conventional El Niño. Modoki El Ninos are often but not always dry in California. So confidence in a wet El Nino Winter for California is more limited….Will This be a Modoki El Nino Winter?   Only time will tell. Should know later in the Fall….

“Modoki” events:   1957–59, 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

*

 

 

Change in Pattern Underway with a Slightly Cooler Weekend with Zephyr Winds during Afternoon and Evening Hours…Details below

Sunday AM Update:

 

Persides meteor shower peaks tonight…mainly after Midnight….See if you can spot a few…

 

A summer storm moving into Washington State will flatten our strong high pressure system over California and Nevada. This will initially bring an increase of afternoon and evening breezes to the area along with cooler temperatures. Monsoon moisture and dynamics along with Mid Level moisture from Tropical Storm John will add to the mix early next week. This all relates to an increase of thunderstorms beginning Saturday that will be isolated at first, with better aerial coverage Monday through Wednesday next week.  The longer range does show the upper ridge rebuilding back into California, going into the following weekend of the 18th.

 

Temperatures at 8000 feet have been in the mid 80s of late. Expect them to be a few degrees cooler Friday and some 5+ degrees cooler over the weekend, Highs will cool into the mid to upper 70 by Sunday. Lows at night will cool to the 40s by Saturday or Sunday.

 

Smoke:

We got a breather Thursday night here in Mammoth; no pun intended. However, with the upper level winds on the increase later today and tonight, expect the potential for smokier conditions Friday night, in Mammoth from the Lion Fire.  This is mainly due to the forecast for more breeze later today and this evening. The Lion fire is reported to be 70% contained.

Upshot; Open your windows this morning if you have not done so already to get the heat out of your homes…be ready to close them later today as tonight it may be smokey.   This forecast is from the experimental Smoke Model  see: https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/

When going to this site, see section near-surface smoke, then click on the check mark loop.

More later on the moisture surge for next week later this weekend.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)