Mammoth Weather

FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HOISTED BY NWS….

NICE RAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN MAMMOTH…..AS OF 7:10M .45 OF AN INCH SINCE 12:00AM AND STILL RAINING….TEMPERATURE AT 41F AT 8200, SO DEFINITELY SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND ON OL” WO0LLY…POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 9500′.

SOME THINGS TO THINK ABOUT THIS MORNING…..

1. THE LATEST “ALL SEASON REAL-TIME MULTI-VARIATE MJO INDEX” IS SHOWING A NEW MJO DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN THIS MORNING. THE NCPE “NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION-ENSEMBLES GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM” IS QUITE BULLISH WITH THIS MJO OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, MOVING WELL INTO PHASE 6 FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION PHASE 3. THE CANADIAN AND UNITED KINGDOM ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE THIS TROPICAL FORCING SYSTEM STRONG AS WELL FOLLOWING SUITE. AS A RESULT, THE DWEEBS EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC THE NEXT TWO WEEKS AS THE CURRENT MJO MODULATES THE WESTERLIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROPICAL FORCING PHENOMENON.

2. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WARM WATER POOL IS NOW SET UP OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 165E…..ABOUT 25 DEGREES WEST OF WHERE IT WAS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER PRIOR TO THE CALIFORNIA HEAT WAVE FORECAST OF SOME TWO WEEKS PRIOR. I HAVE TO SAY, WITH THE WARM POOL SO FAR TO THE WEST…..NOT TOO SURE HOW THE WAVE PATTERN WILL SET UP DOWN STREAM. MAYBE THE ENSEMBLES WILL SHED SOME LIGHT ON IT WITHIN WEEK ONE.

CURRENT SYSTEM:

AS PER WRF 12Z MONDAY

NEW COOL TROF APPROACHING THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY BEGUN RIPPING AND TEARING….THE SPLITTING PROCESS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 110KNOT UPPER JET ON ITS BACKSIDE. A CLOSED CENTER WILL FORM TONIGHT AS PER WRF, SE OF THE BAY AREA AND OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE IT WILL THEN REMAIN PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY FOR 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE WRF WOBBLES THE CENTER JUST OFF SHORE SOUTH OF MONTEREY BAY…OFF THE CENTRAL COAST. IF THIS VERIFIES…MAMMOTH HAS GOT TO BE IN A CHERRY POSITION WITHIN THE DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW. THE BEST DEFORMATION AXIS IS OVER MONO COUNTY AND WILL SORT OF PIVOT ON AN AXIS, AS THE SYSTEMS WOBBLES ABOUT. THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS IS ABOUT 552DM SO SNOW LEVELS ABOUT 8K BEGINNING TUESDAY AM……THEN DOWN TO 7K BY WEDNESDAY AM. OF COURSE THE DWEEBS HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE MODEL THIS AM, AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS MAY BE DIFFERENT. THE LATEST QPF FROM HPC IS FOR A 3.00 BULLS-EYE OVER MAMMOTH BETWEEN 5:00AM MONDAY AND 5:00AM SATURDAY. MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL FALL BY THURSDAY AM.

SNOW HEADED FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY AS NEGATIVE TILT TROF BECOMES CUT-OFF OVER SOUTH/CENTRAL CA…….

UPDATING……………

THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS AT 500MB SHOWED SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM WEST OF THE TIP OF BAJA INTO CALIFORNIA THEN BACKING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS IT REACHED INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT….THEN OFF SHORE PULLING AROUND THE SAN DIEGO “WARM-CORE” UPPER CUT-OFF. THIS SUBTROPICAL FEATURE CONTINUES TO PUMP UP QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT IN THE COLUMN AS MUCH AS 1.6 OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA BETWEEN TO THE NORTH OF SANTA BARBARA AND TO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EAST TO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY. THIS AREA IS IN THE DIVERGENT NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE LI INDEX IS FORECASTED CLOSE TO -5 WITH ENERGY AT 1500 J/KG. 😉

NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY IN THE MAMMOTH HIGH COUNTRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES WITH MORE RAPID COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEW FORMING “COLD-CORE” CUT-OFF MONDAY PM. THE BIG MESSAGE HERE IS THAT WHETHER OR NOT WE GET ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM THE PRESENT INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE, IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS THE REALIZATION, THAT THE SYSTEM WEST OF SAN DIEGO IS REALLY “PRIMING THE PUMP” MOISTURE WISE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD CORE CUT OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SLOW MOVING COLD-CORE CUTOFF LOW DIGGING OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL BE ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE FROM OLD MEXICO
AND GENERATE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS, THEN WEST TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA AND WHITE MTS.

BY WEDNESDAY, AN ALMOST DUE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MEXICAN MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS OUT IN ABOUT A WEEK. AGAIN, THERE IS CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEAR THE COLD-CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE 500MB TEMPS MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS -20C. THE ECMWF FROM ITS 00Z SATURDAY RUN HAD THE COLD CORE OVER SEQUOIA NP TUESDAY PM, AND THEN JUST OFF SHORE WEST OF PASO ROBLES WEDNESDAY PM THEN ABOUT MAMMOTH THURSDAY PM. THE SAME OPERATIONAL RUN FOR THE GFS HAD THE UPPER LOW ABOUT DEATH VALLEY TUESDAY PM, THEN OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY PM. BY THURSDAY PM IT HAS WOBBLED BACK ABOUT OVER BEATTY, NV AGAIN. SO THE ACTUAL POSITION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER COLD CORE CUT-OFF WILL DETERMINE WHEN AND WHETHER THE MAMMOTH HIGH COUNTRY GETS MUCH SNOW OR NOT. 700MB TEMPS WITHIN THE CORE ARE AS COLD AS -2C WITH A LARGE AREA OF BETWEEN 0C AND -1C. STAY TUNED….IT GOING TO GET INTERESTING! 🙂

DR HOWARD AND “THE DWEEBS”……………………..:-)