2/21/23

Lee Vining just flushed out of the fog at 9:40 AM as winds came up.

Storms on track. Friday into Friday Night System will be biggest snowfall producer. GFS now has the Closed Low ejecting Through Southern CA instead of Baja Saturday afternoon and evening. This would create a Pattern of Upslope Saturday into the night. So another 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible during that time, leaving Sunday to be the Blue Bird Day. Tweet Tweet.

Snowfall Between today and Saturday night will be 10 to 20 inches in town and 20 to 30 inches over the upper elevations.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon looks to be a time with the least amount of snowfall, like Saturday PM (3 to 6 inches)

 

Outlook:

Blue Bird Day Sunday.

New Storm moves in Monday….

There will be several more systems with over-water trajectory and without any AR’s noted next week.

The Dweeber………………..:-)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

All the promise of large scale retrogression in the Hemi Pattern has backed off the next two weeks.  This means that storms will continue to be cold with light fluffy powder in moderate amounts. The longer range shows further retrogression week 3 toward the Middle of March, but the Dweebs are not biting on this yet, even though the MJO really touting it, as it reemerges into Phase 7 then 8.

The MJO has been successful enough for retrogression in getting the Long Wave Trof back over CA then west off shore. This will add to what is becoming one of the longest coldest winters in Eastern California in Memory. What is coming is nothing short of Misery for those that prefer traditional Sierra Weather vs Northern and Central Rockies type weather. However, some will be happy with traditional Rocky Mt Powder that might get kinda deep by Saturday AM. Snorkels anyone? The Dweeb in his younger years, remembers skiing the Big Burn at “Snowmass” in Aspen in 2+ feet of very light powder.  After a fall, that snow was hard to catch a breath in!

Back to the Meteorology, and after looking the 12Z GFS deterministic run for this week, as noted, this is true CPK air as the upper flow grabs some of the cold from the Hudson Bay PV as well as the NW Territories. If you have studied the weather in the Eastern US, you will know that they are becoming historically warm just as we are historically cold. As a note, we have had colder individual storms. However, the climatology of the persistence of cold is getting more and more notable in Mammoth for this winter.

This weeks active weather pattern begins tomorrow Tuesday. 1st with very strong winds as a stronger gradient is set up because of the Antecedent warmth ahead of a favorable Upper Jet Trajectory. As you can see below, the Arctic Ribbon pushes south through Mammoth Tuesday Evening in the 700MB chart and at 500MB the tap of CPK extends from well up in Canada! This is true modified Arctic Air!

700MB     Ribbon passing through Mammoth                                                                                500MB

 

 

 

Snowfall Amounts:

The west side of the Sierra is favored in the pattern for best precipitation.  Assuming that Snow to Water ratios are 15:1 through 4:00PM Wednesday Afternoon.  Amounts may be 6 to 10 inches over the crest and in town 3 to 5 inches of light fluffy snow from system number 1. System #2 will have more over water trajectory. It is slower moving as well. It is possible that the top of Mammoth Mt could get another 18 to 24 inches while in town 10 to 15 inches by early Saturday AM. This 2nd storm has the potential to bring the deepest light dry powder of the winter!  Don’t expect much more than another inch or two after Sunrise Saturday. For you outdoor enthusiast’s, the weather may offer a bit of a break this Saturday and Sunday in the storms.

There is another storm following. It is expected to begin Sunday night with another 1 to 2 feet possible by Tuesday evening. One again, this is another cold storm but possibly not as cold as the storms this week. After the early following week system, there looks to be a break Wednesday and Thursday before the possibility of a slightly milder wetter the following Friday. The not as cold and wetter scenario for the 3 and 4th is because of suggestion of further retrogression of the East PAC High,  which as of this point has failed to materialize, so not banking on it at this point.  There is a colder system for the 6th, 7th and 8th….But of course the further in time we go out the more the pattern is likely to change.  Below, look how crazy strong the MJO gets in Phase 7/8 toward the middle of March.   Not sure what is going to happen. But pretty scarry to the Dweebs….

 

MJO RMM