Archive for November, 2010

Cold and Snowy The Rest Of The Day…Then Clearing Tonight and Fair For The ThanksGiving Holiday

No real changes to the forecast.  We are still looking at 6 to 12 inches in the Residential sections of Mammoth by evening with some 15 to 20 inches up on the mountain, (20:1). CRFC cut back their QPF this morning from the last update yesterday to about an inch. However, we are still within the previous forecast of 6 to 12 in town and 1 to 2 feet up on the hill.

Notably there will be a significant increase in wind this afternoon as the arctic front approaches and within a few hours of FROPA.  High temps today will remain in the low to mid 20s with lows tonight in the single digits.

Tomorrow’s forecast remain unchanged with fair skies, gusty sierra crest winds and highs in the teens and low 20s

Expect fair weather Thursday and Friday with highs 35 to 40 and lows in the teens and 20s at 8000 feet. Winds will not be an issue Thursday and Friday.

A small storm is expected over the weekend………………


The Dweeber


——————————————————————————–
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Its Cold! The Snow Is Deep…..And Another 1 to 2 feet Is On The Way!

Skies cleared in the Town of Mammoth this morning with the usual “Dave’s Cloud” shrouding the upper  Mountain. The mountain received a bonanza  of snowfall over the weekend with some 4 to 6.5 Feet reported! Near the village, I received about 3 feet .  There will be a bit of a break in the action today….however more is on the way!

The next system has tapped into a reservoir of cold Arctic  over NW Canada. It is moving very quickly and will push a front through our area by 00z Wednesday. Snow will once again begin to fall by tonight and become heavy by late Tuesday morning and persist in the moderate to heavy range through 4:oopm Tuesday then go showery Tuesday night.

Here is what the Dweebs want you to know:

1. According to the Monday 12z WRF, The coldest Air aloft will arrive by 06z Wednesday when 700mb temps reach -18c over Mammoth and -20c over Bridgeport.

2. At Mammoth Lakes, 1000-500mb Thicknesses drop to 523dm at FROPA (00z Wednesday)  as the Arctic Ribbon rapidly plunges through Mono County before shifting eastward. Although the pure Arctic will be mostly north and east (Over Idaho) It will still be plenty cold!

3. CRFC has updated their QPF forecast to indicate the following:

1. Huntington Lake,Ca     1.21 inches

2. Yosemite, Ca               1.44 inches

So the average QPF for our area would be about 1.33 inches.  It is easy to see that at 20:1, the upper elevations could get another 1 to 2 feet by Tuesday night!


Expect another 6 to 12 inches possible  in the Town of Mammoth.


Outlook:

Cold and Sunny is the word for Wednesday with Highs in the Upper teens in town. It is “Face Mask”  time for you skiers the next few days until the wind quits.

By Thanksgiving day it should be pretty windless by afternoon and we should all give thanks as well for the excellent ski conditions we have for so early in the season.  It will be fair and not so cold with highs in the 30s Thursday with lows in the single digits.  Friday will be windless and fair with Highs in the 30s lows in the teens and 20s. Expect strong Mtn  inversions by Friday.


The Weekend outlook calls for yet another storm by Saturday or Sunday. It is too early to begin speculating on how much snow it may bring. However, one thing is for sure, in that it will not be nearly as cold as the storms we just came through……………………:-)


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

——————————————————————————–
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Steady Heavy Snowfall Has Turned To Showers Now As Long Wave Shifts Into The Great Basin

The new 12z Sunday model runs are now complete. They show the main long wave Trof slowly shifting east into the Great Basin over the next 12 hours. The axis of the long wave will be east of Mammoth by 00z Monday. There are two more short waves that will move through the long wave that will effect the Mammoth area the next two days. The first one rolls through early Monday morning and the other during the day Tuesday.

The Monday system has little over water trajectory and so it will be mostly showers beginning about midnight tonight and should be mostly through by sunrise Monday morning. Expect a few inches from that system.

The next and last in the series will have another good shot of Arctic air. It is better organized and has over water trajectory from the British Columbia coast…..south down and through Northern Ca.  Although the Northern Sierra is favored with this system, Mammoth Mountain may still pick up another 10 to 20 inches at again, a 20:1 ratio. Expect that the town will receive about half that amount.

Thereafter, a strong northerly flow will effect the high country Wednesday. Expect windy conditions over the crest. It will be sunny and cold  in town.  An upstream upper level ridge will move on shore Thursday. This will provide fair weather and the best skiing on the most  base on Mammoth Mountain, for so early in the season in over a decade!

Longer range:

Although all the global models are not quite in sync yet, using mainly the deterministic ECMWF. It appears that significant height falls will return to the California coast by late Friday night/Saturday morning  the 26th/27th  of November. This will lead toward the possibility of snow returning to the high country as early as Saturday. The Dweebs believe that snow will become more likely by the following Sunday. This new pattern is not associated with cold Arctic air like the present pattern. It is a more traditional pacific storm with relatively higher snow levels.

However…the screaming message this morning is that the Western Hemispheric Pattern continues to be progressive. And…..without effective blocking downstream, and favorable wave lengths, the storm door should continue to be open for the central west coast into the month of December………….:-)


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)


Reference Glossary of Weather Terms