Archive for November, 2010

A break in the action today then snow becoming heavy again over night into Sunday AM

Our weather front sailed through nicely early this morning bringing close to 2 feet over the crest and some 10 to 15 inches around town. Short wave ridging will be sufficient to give us a nice break in the heavy snowfall Saturday afternoon, and although there will still be periods of snow, there will also be periods of sun!


5:45pm update:

The next really heavy snowy period will not develop until very late tonight and more likely after midnight. The period after midnight and before noon looks pretty ominous,  as the main upper low moves in and out of California. The upper trof should clear the Sierra by mid to late afternoon Sunday. Expect another break in the heavy snow mid afternoon Sunday into Sunday evening. The next short wave will redevelop more snowfall, again about midnight Sunday night with the last in the series late Monday night.

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In between short waves, lighter amounts of either snow or snow showers will still occur.  The Dweebs still believe that Mammoth Mountain will get up to 4 feet storm total…..hopefully a little more…..

The high resolution model WRF has the next short wave increasing the snowfall late Sunday night…especially after midnight. Another 6 to 12 inches could fall by noon Monday.

The WRF has yet another colder arctic system the the Dweebs will keep an eye on for the period, midnight Monday night into noon Tuesday.  Typically…the WRF beyond 48-60 hours is not as good as the Global models. The GFS has the Arctic low progressing east quicker with no over water trajectory lending to more of a snow showery pattern rather then the wetter WRFs scenario of another 1 foot plus between Late Monday night and noon Tuesday.  There will be plenty of time to adjust for this frigid system.


Fair, breezy and cold is the word Wednesday…then little wind in town with strong Mtn inversions developing Turkey day into Friday. 


Way off in Fantasy land…..the Dweebs are also keep an eye on a system that is moving into eastern Asia at the moment….. That may become a player in our weather about the time that visitors live for home a week from this Sunday.



Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Getting Ready for a Mammoth Blizzard!!

Storm still looking good this morning.

There are four distinct features here:

1. The cold front will come through Mammoth about 11:00pm tonight. The bulk of the snowfall associated with the front with occur with and post frontal. So am not expecting snowfall to really pick up until later tonight.  WSFO RNO is expecting 3 to 5 inches in town by about sunrise.

2. First 500mb short wave comes through about 12 noon Saturday. So expect strong UVM between Sunrise and about 12:00pm Saturday along with moderate to heavy snow potential.

3.  There may or may not be much of a let up in precipitation between the 1200 noon and the passage of then next and main short wave which seems to have a double vort structure and drags through about Sunday mid afternoon.  There is going to be a very heavy period of snowfall between late Saturday afternoon and 12:00pm Sunday.

4. The 3rd short wave is being depicted by the GFS as an either NW west slider or inside slider while the NAM/WRF has still has some over water trajectory. Either way it look showery for Monday Am and of course cold. Snow totals still look good for up to 4 feet over the powder fields of Mammoth Mountain and a good two feet+ in the Village.

Of note, the new GFS as a few more sliders coming down over the great basin even as late at Wednesday, I do not expect much more then maybe some Mcflurries from them…..but it will be quite cold this coming week until Thanksgiving with moderating temps thereafter…..Longest range is hinting at some over running….later the following weekend……


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Updated snowfall QPF and Snowfall For Weekend Storm

This afternoons models continued to show strong height falls along the pacific coast into the Great Basin over the weekend. Several additional impulses will follow the original front Friday afternoon, well south into California Saturday.  Moderate precipitation will shift south from Northern Ca, down through the Central Sierra after the initial front moves through Friday afternoon. By Friday night, moderate snowfall is expected in Mammoth. Then heavier snowfall will develop over the Central Sierra later Saturday, as the reloading of height falls occurs Saturday and a closed low develops off the extreme Northern Ca coast by evening. This will have the effect of driving an even stronger moisture fetch into the Sierra, later Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Heavy snowfall will occur at this time in the Mammoth Area.


HPC 5 day QPF is boosted over the crest close to 3.00 storm total by Monday.  Again…snow to water ratios will begin at about 10:1 then grow to about 20:1 by Saturday night. Thus snowfall totals, “up to” 2 feet is possible at elevations at 8000…. and up to as high as 4 feet over the crest for the Central and Northern Sierra by Monday.


The Dweeber………………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms