Temperatures going below normal for protracted period of time as WX pattern shifts into active mode…..MJO shifts into phase 7 then phase 8 with possible Major AR resulting for Ca around Christmas….question is Where?

So the long awaited Active Pattern is shaping up nicely.  Upper high in the right position feeding short waves via AK south east into long wave trof.  The combo of the Thursday storm and the Sunday night through Tuesday night may dump some 6 feet of snow on the upper mountain. Amounts forecasted will adjust over the next few days so stay tuned as there is an decent, categorically weak AR with it and so amounts can change up or down.

The main point here is that the long wave appears to be locked in for a few weeks. Shure glad I was not one of those dry foot long range forecasters touting doom and gloom! Last month I shared a scientific paper about La Niña, and the negative phase of the QBO. One of the points in the research paper was that there was a stronger correlation for the MJO to continue east, past that LA Nina area of upper convergence into the central pacific, Phases 7/8. More frequent strato warms too.  Last winter the MJO ran out of gas over the western pacific. What the current forecast suggests is that it will remain strong into phase 8.  The results deepen the PV over NE Asia and pump the central pacific ridge to kingdom come. Eventually cutting off the high with the potential of a southern stream jet into CA later this month. This suggests; 1st a lot of snowfall for the Sierra up to about The 22nd.  Then if the MJO actually makes it strong into phase 8, the “the potential of a very significant AR for a part of CA.  This is a teleconnection, not a forecast so just sit back and enjoy the big snow producing storms for the next 6 to 10 days. By the time we get to week 2 the models will let us know if a large AR is in the offering……. California needs the water so let’s hope we get lots. Just hope it does not turn to rain…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………:-)

Transition underway with unsettled weather this Monday Night and the next system Thursday bringing the potential of a foot of snow……Larger storms lurking the following week..

Monday night:

GFS seems to have resolved it’s closing offer or cutting off scenario, as the massive storm for early next week is loaded with cold Alaskan Arctic air.  It’s currently depicted slowly moving into California Sunday with its baroclinic zone somewhat stalled over Central CA, Sunday night through Monday night or Tuesday.   Although lots can change in 5 to 7 days, it looks like a monster.

stay tuned……..

 

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All global models in agreement that week 2 will be stormy. Big question is,  when will it get going that week.  Could be as early as Monday or as late as Thursday.  The problem with the week 2 period is, the GFS model cuts off the first big system, off the coast early that week due to strong down stream ridge over the Midwest.. We may get some light snowfall or nothing until the upstream kicker gives it the boot. Then some cold heave snowfall. The ECMWF is more progressive (quicker) so it will be fun to watch how all this gets resolved. Main point is, And as stated earlier, snowpack should be good by Christmas, if long range model trends continue. It’s too soon to guess on how much snow will fall week 2. But amounts that are tallied in feet are certainly possible. The pattern wants to continue through the solstice and beyond….this La Niña looks pretty cold from the way it’s shaping up for December.

 

In the meantime, there will be a couple of small storms this week.   One Monday night/Tuesday AM that may drop 1 to 3 inches of snow and another colder storm Thursday that will drop about a foot on Mammoth Mtn. The following weekend looks dry. Then the fun begins for the Weatherman. Several Dumps on the Way next week…..Looks like its going to be a white Christmas with deep snow!

 

 

The Dweeber…….🥸

Stagnant weather Pattern to Continue through weeks end with mild days and cool nights….Ensemble members for following week show increasing confidence for more active pattern developing toward the end of week 2

12-4-21

 

Everything coming together nicely!   Nice weekend followed by cooler weather 1st half of next week with the chance of some snow showers Monday Night.  Retrogression gives the next weather system some over water trajectory for Thursday into Friday with moderate snowfall amounts possible. Storm door opens to the pacific on the 13th with 3 day dump for several feet of snow through the 15th, These are cold storms as cross polar flow develops week 2 over the north pacific.  Further retrogression is expected later week 2 into Week 3 with a warm sector ahead of cold storms.  Christmas Week looks great as both EURO and GFS models coming into more agreement.

Updates forthcoming ………

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

 

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12/02/2021-6:00PM

All systems go for nice transition next week to cooler and at times, showery weather. Even the CPC included it in their outlook. It will be cold enough for snowmaking by Tuesday, and beyond. As mentioned earlier, the pattern is going into transition with retrogression of the long wave features. IE we get rid of our long wave ridge in time. So the eastern pacific high redevelops further west over the next 1 to 2 weeks. Breezy cooler WX with the chance of some showers Monday night and Tuesday. Then stronger winds developing later Wednesday into Friday AM,  turning colder yet with a period of light snow.  The period of the 14th through the 17th is still mixed at this time with unsettled weather meaning snowfall. Don’t ask how much as no one knows yet. The Euro is not as exciting as the GFS. But that is a long way out and just about anything good can happen!  Its painful to have to wait that long! 🙄

 

The Dweeber…………..:-)

 

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Of Note; Bishop had a high of 74 degrees yesterday. However, the record was 80 set back in 1909. Todays record high is 72 set back in 2008,  so previous record high now in jeopardy. Expect more of the same this week with highs in Bishop in the low to mid 70s while at resort levels in the low 60s. The Sun sets at 4:45 PM today. As a note, the end of the 1st week of December is the week of the earliest sunsets of the year…..Not during the Solstice.

Again the weather is very quiet. not much breeze. Nights near freezing and the days in the low 60s.  Of interest, the daytime highs are normally reached between 12:30PM and 1:00PM vs Summer when highs are reached between 1:30PM and 2:30PM.

Now the Outlook;

The good news; there are an increasing number of ensemble members of the GFS that are showing a deepening Long Wave trough into the Intermountain west, then retrograding westward. This means that cooler then colder weather is progged to develop in the beginning of this change, next week. The WX charts show retrogression of the long wave in the 5 day means to a point where the storms will come in from the pacific, rather than drop in as an insider slider like in the beginning. The former brings colder weather, the further progs suggest better odds for significant snowfall toward the end of the transition.  Additionally, all global ensemble models forecast the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) to become negative, as as a result, the the upper ridge that has been blocking storms in the PNA region disappears. (see graphics below)

The main point at this time is that the Dweebs want to make it clear that we should look at all this with cautious optimism. These are outlooks and not actual forecasts because of their distance in time.