Were off to one of the best starts in a water year since winter 2018/19.   The reason?  A mid pacific Blocking Pattern that has persisted for several weeks….  It is important to note that blocking patterns are not all alike. A blocking ridge over the far eastern pacific brings cold to the east and dry weather to the far west.   However, a block in the northern latitudes well North of Hawaii and at times west to the Bearing Sea can force storm energy to drop south from the Arctic via AK or British Columbia…….Or there is always the possibility of the westerlies undercutting the block which can unleash a lower latitude storm track.   We love north Central Pacific Blocking Patterns as more often than not, that is the way California and especially Southern CA gets their rain!!

After today’s 2 to 3 foot dump of platinum powder on Mammoth Mountain, there will be one more system that will split off shore and actually favor Southern CA this time with heavy rainfall developing Wednesday into Thursday.  This system may produce only light to moderate snowfall in Mammoth Wednesday. (6 to 12) inches.  After Wednesday,  we go into an inside slider pattern which is extra cold and snow showery….Thursday night through Friday evening…then cold through New Years day.   The north pacific ridge dampens this weekend and so there will tend to be a break in the precipitation for CA Saturday and Sunday.

Next week is uncertain. As while the American models show the North Pacific Block redeveloping and Amplifying northward setting up another protracted stormy period Wednesday through Saturday, the ECMWF does not agree as it is overall less amplified, then pinches off the upper high well to the north.  We may get some snowfall out of that pattern but it is a much less potent storm than the GFS.   As always, time helps resolve longer range forecast issues!

As mentioned before, I believe that this is the Winter of the AR for California with more coming later this winter.  More later……:-)

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)