12/13/2021

Todays guidance and the ensembles, continue the trend, that this stormy period for California is just beginning and that it is likely to continue beyond Christmas. The main point here is that the eastern pacific ridge “retrogrades” during week 2 ) next week and that pulls the long wave west for more storms with good moisture taps. Snow Megeddon is an eastern colloquial term that is being used for not one storm but the accumulation of many between today and years end.  There is a particularly large one, that will possibly hit around Christmas, the timing will be better kn own by this weeks end,  A lot will depend upon how strong the AR is.  There seems to be several weak ARs in store for the high country through years end.

The Dweeber……………………….:-)

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So the models are in this afternoon and all are in agreement that the pattern will remain active through the 28th. It will not snow everyday as there looks to be a break developing some time next Friday into Sunday. The QPF suggests a solid 10 inches of water through next Friday. Somewhere between 8 and 10 feet of snowfall over the upper elevations for Mammoth MT is still reasonable for the combined two storms. There looks to be a break next weekend., however, the following week will bring the opportunity for more moderate to heavy snow producing storms as well.  Next week the main the upper jet seems to favor the southern half of the state more than Northern California. Good for both the Southern and Central Sierra, Good for Mammoth! .  Amounts will be updated later this week but preliminary Est are some 4 to 6 inches of water, (without a major AR). I say that as although all model runs do not show a major AR in many runs, there are enough ensemble members that still have it considered, so only time will resolve this issue. If we do have a Moderate or Strong AR, then all bets off on snowfall next week as it will be, “Snow Megeddon!”  Most likely time frame around Christmas.

This Monday Tuesday storm has a very low end moderate AR (barely Level 2) So far, it appears that this Monday-Tuesday storm will bring the heaviest snowfall totals in the shortest period of time.

BTW, the IVT forecasts from the GFS show the potential for a weak AR on the 23rd and the European, a moderate AR on the 26th.   It seems that the idea of a significant AR keeps is still in the cards, it is still possible and until we get closer to the week 2 period, we can only watch with interest.

In the meantime, I expect Mammoth Mt to have the best Christmas and New Years Week skiing, in several years!!

 

Happy Holidays!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)