It was quite the windy day across Mono County Tuesday as an area of low pressure deepened along the Northern CA/NV Border. Winds were clocked above 60 MPH in the mid afternoon in Bishop. The High Wind warning well advertised by the NWS nailed it!  Cold Air advection poured into Mono County during the Mid Afternoon.

By Wednesday morning, the upper center will be near Tahoe before tracking east through Nevada during the day. As the low shifts east, an area of baroclinicity will drop south Wednesday morning initiating the chance of snow shower’s. By the afternoon Wednesday, the WRF model has the upper center very near the Utah Border, while a rather impressive Vort Center swings SE from west of Tahoe to Mammoth During the Mid to Late afternoon hours.

This Vort center is coming through during the period of max heating and instability. So it could get kind of wild with areas of Snow Thunderstorms later in the afternoon throughout the county including Mammoth Lakes. Snowfall amounts could be several inches in some areas with the snow level about 6000 feet. Precipitation will wind down by Mid Evening…. Highs will be chilly…In the low 40s… Lows in the upper teens and twenties Thursday AM.

 

The upper low exits quickly Thursday morning with a sunny day expected. High temps will be near 50 with a warming trend.  The Weekend looks stellar with temps warming to the low 60s by Sunday!

MJO: Attended the CPC Tropical Discussion this AM

Changes are coming to ENSO as a robust MJO now over the Western Pacific shifts east across the pacific the next two weeks. Strong westerly wind bursts are occurring ahead of the MJO and an air/sea Kelvin Wave is pushing warm water east over taking the cold La Nina waters. This MJO is expected to put the nail in La Nina over the next month or so.

With MJO in phase 7, the composites suggest warmer than normal weather next week with dry weather continuing.  However, the MJO remains strong into Phase 8 and that suggests that another change in the pattern may return precipitation chances to the Sierra, during the last Week of April!   Where was MJO in Phase 7/8 in February!   That time of the year, a strong MJO in phase 7/8 can bring pounding rains and snows for California and the Sierra. However, not this time of the year…..Although we may get a late April Surprise………………..;-)

Start thinking about water conservation now, as its going to be a rough Summer for California.   We can only hope for lots of wet Thunderstorms for the high country.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)