The Strato Warming is in process.   Temperatures have risen strongly over the stratosphere above the arctic,  increasing high pressure below in the troposphere. It will be interesting to see what the long range models will do with the Polar Vortex’s over the coming weeks. Over the western hemisiphier, the global models at 500MB show the PV strongly developing near the Hudson Bay Area by mid January. This really amplifies the planetary wave pattern with Trof-Ridge Trof pattern between the dateline and the Eastern US.   This highly Amped ridge is whats in store for the far west next week with very warm temps for California, especially the southern half, Wednesday through Friday and possibly Saturday. After that, all hell may break loose over the northern hemisiphier the following week….

At the moment, the Polar Vortex has been broken into a few parts as the displacing polar positive height anomaly develops. Week (2) of todays 12z Euro shows several more PVs breaking off forming smaller ones all over the northern mid latitudes.  Currently, The major PV is deep over far Eastern Asia with a smaller one over Western Europe. The Sudden Strato warming has really done its job, with 500MB heights anomaliously high over much of the Polar Region. The stage is set for some really “wild weather”, during the latter part of January. However, no one really knows how it will affect the west coast yet. Again, next week, the Euro has the PV setting up near the Hudson Bay area with a highly amped ridge off the west coast. (Cold east/warm west) Over-time, there looks to be retrogression in the positive height anomaly and that’s where our pattern can really change.   I would NOT! put much faith in the week two models yet, untill we see how this change affects the northern hemisiphieric pattern as our west coast weather evolves.

PS plan your bike rides Wednesday through Friday….:-)

 

The Dweeber……………….:-)