Residents of Mammoth woke up to a pleasant surprise with a light rain falling from our skies.  Moisture from remnants of tropical depression Karina was channeled across, mainly Southern Mono County, bringing 1/4 inch of rain as measured by the RAWs site at Devils Post Pile. The rain had stopped, however, the airmass continues to be moist for the time being. The models’ did forecast the past few days, some precipitation in this time frame, however, no where near a 1/4 inch.  As a rule, models do not handle subtropical moisture well from the SSW.

The big story is still the smoke and the upcoming windy period expected later this afternoon. Yesterday, gusts of 25 MPH were common over the summit of Mammoth Mt during early afternoon. By 8:45pm, the winds were gusting to 60 mph. However, the gradient driven winds at the surface during that afternoon did not materialize as smoke blocked the diurnal solar heating of the day.   This is an area, I think that the NWS does not have a complete handle on as there is little experience with this much smoke ahead of a subtropical jet. However, live and learn and the forecast will be better next time with the wind portion.  (Of course we all hope for not a next time)

Fridays afternoons winds should surface, as they will be dynamically driven by a weak branch of the polar jet and surface front. Strong gusty winds are expected later this afternoon in town in the 30 to 50 MPH range.  Once the front passes through, our airmass will dry out again tonight.

The outlook for the weekend is for continued westerly flow. Inversions will eventually set up again and yes, the smoke will thicken with amounts dependent upon the fires activity.   Temperatures this weekend will cool to the 60s for highs and down possibly to the 30s. Wind’s will be light Saturday.

Looking down the road;

Next week through Tuesday we will be under a westerly flow, with the upper jet well to our north. Temps will rise to the low 70s again with lows in the 30s and 40s.  There is more ridging Wednesday before a short wave Trof breaks it down. So Wednesday may be warmer with lighter breezes, possibly more smoke. There may be more breeze Thursday afternoon and night followed by NW flow Saturday a week away.  Beyond that, another good sized ridge builds in about next Sunday into week 2 with the possibility of an off shore event that might actually clear us out! That’s a long way out and as you know, Forecast Models’ are not perfect, just forgiven!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……..:-)