Dry Comfortable weather with breezy afternoons are expected through the 12th of July with Summer heat and the arrival of the Summer Monsoon not expected until after the 15th of July.
A Trof of low pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest will remain stationary for the next 8 to 14 days. This will give the Mammoth area below normal temps week 1 (70F-75F), then more seasonal temps week 2. (75 to 77). Overnight lows are expected in the 40s and 50s.
Additionally, this Trof will enhance our afternoon and evening Zephyr. Thus, late afternoon and evening breezes will be stronger with gusts to 35 MPH. Our air mass will remain dry with virtually no thunderstorms while this pattern continues with a strong zephyr.
Latest European Guidance suggests that this Upper Trof will retrograde just after Mid-Month to the Gulf of Alaska. (15th-18th) This allows heights to build over the desert southwest along with the heat.
The EC model had 500MB heights by the end of the 15 day period, near 600DM. This would complete the transition to Summer, and the harbinger of the AZ monsoon?…. Well see. (depends upon the config of the Subtropical ridge.)
Over the far west, the heat will build during the 2nd half of July. Summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms may become more likely.
Big question this morning is……After the upper Trof retrogrades west…will it redevelop over the pacific NW again shortly after?