12/30 7:50AM

 

Partly Cloudy today with a chance of light snow showers.  Very light if any accumulations today….

 

Mammoth Mt reports 1 to 2 inches of new snow over night..

 

Our weather system was just too weak and too of shore to do us any good…

Expecting a dry week ahead….With clouds and wind at times..

 

The Dweeber….

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Here is an update from the Dweeb Report on the forecast for the small year end storm that is expected to bring up some 2 to 6 inches of snow to the high country over the next 36 hours…

 

Here are the bullet points that shape our snowfall estimates….

 

  1. The weather system, a small closed low, will track a bit further off shore.
  2. The system will track well south of of Southern California and turn east near the Cedro’s Islands off the coast of Baja.
  3. The speed is a bit quicker in that is will not slow as much as it approaches the CA/Mex Border.

 

All considered, the front or main area of Upper Divergence is only expected to bring some .20 inches of precip over the crest. 1 to 3 inches of snow…….The upslope portion for the high country is weaker because the low is further off shore with only some 1 to 3 inches expected through Monday evening.

So the snowfall that is just beginning in Mammoth will end Monday evening. Amounts are expected to tally some 2 to 6 inches between the top of Mammoth Mt to the lowest elevations of the Town.

 

The Medium Range is shaped by the teleconnection of the Arctic Oscillation going strongly positive. This causes more low pressure to become bottled up over the Arctic and Canada, so that jet stream migrates to the north, especially in the far west like CA.

This is expected to be temporary, as the AO teleconnection will trend negative later week 2 and open up the gates to more storminess out west. Even with the upper jet to our north next week, we will not be without interesting weather. I expect some windy weather later in the first week January. The progs show a NW jet to the north of us….

As the AO becomes negative again toward the 8th of January, along with other teleconnections,  support more storminess out west. The EPO becomes significant, as the negative phase of the EPO will trend to drive the upper jet south again into CA. by a blocking pattern. This looks to be robust pattern change, one that could be quite stormy with a lot of snow in the high country. It looks to be a cold pattern with insider slider systems diving into Great Basin, not real good snow producers for the Central Sierra, better for the Rockies…..The pattern shows colder weather ahead as well with gusty winds…Note, this is a wet jet that may affect the northern sierra this weekend, but iffy at best at the moment.  It would have higher snow levels and strong winds

 

The MJO:

 

O’ Boy!  There are so many interference’s coming about with the MJO in the weeks ahead. Tropical Storms….Easterly Rossby Waves, a significant westward moving Kelvin Wave, and of course the on-going low frequency -IOD.  It should be an interesting update from the CPC, New Years Eve!!

PS, it has been a long time with out a significant El Nino…

 

Another update around New Years Day…

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)