After a break in the storminess Saturday, Sunday on into Monday,  winds will increase again Tuesday with light precipitation developing as early as Tuesday mid day.  There appears to be a weak AR that becomes quasi stationary early Tuesday evening and possibly stall through Wednesday over the Central Sierra. So the High country remains in the warm sector Tuesday afternoon, through much of Wednesday.  It is not a wide swath and not a particularly wet one. However, it just appears to stall in the vicinity of Central California. This was in both 18z, 00z and now 12z Monday’s GFS runs.  The upcoming pattern is an interesting one in that it has a very good moisture tap and is accompanied by a surface wave that spins up into a closed cyclone, in the sweet spot, west of Pt Area. If I had ordered it myself I would not have changed its location much for Mammoth Lakes.  With the snow and the freezing level falling Wednesday and Wednesday night, the snow that will be falling on Mammoth Mt Tuesday and Tuesday night will change from rain to snow in the Towns of Mammoth and June Lake, during the day Wednesday. The “IOP” with this storm will be Wednesday night into Thursday. Amounts in the Town of Mammoth may tally between 1 and 2 feet by Friday AM at 8000 feet…..3 to 4 feet on Mammoth Mt over the crest.

There is another storm for the weekend that is colder with 1000-500MB thicknesses south of 540DM by Saturday Morning. The new 12Z Monday GFS is more bullish and a bit quicker with it.  This storm may prove to put a lid on our high temps Saturday into the 20s with snow showers possible even in the Owens Valley, Saturday morning, especially western sections near the sierra foothills….it will be cold and breezy!

 Longer Range:

The differences in the global models are more profound during the week two period. The ECMWF wants to fill the Midwest and eventually east with Arctic Air. That will tend to weaken storms moving into the west coast or cut them off all together. The main differences considering weeks 2 and 3, are in how fast the cold air moves out.  The GFS is much more progressive than the ECMWF and so it flushes out the cold quicker, while the EC takes more time.  What may end up is a more southerly but weaker storm track that favors Southern CA more… week two.  By week 3, “Mid-December, the storm track should favor the west coast once again and on into Christmas.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)