Thursday 2:36PM update:

 

More Modified Arctic Cold today and with the lack of snow cover in town, the cold is beginning to take its toll on the older condominium projects in the form of frozen pipes. This has been reported to me by several condominiums managers today. This condition is likely to get worse, over the next 48 hours.  The problem arises when the warmer weather returns and pipes burst.   This is Mid December weather pattern in mid to late February. Very rare!  If this pattern occurred in mid December, we would be looking at high single digits for daytime highs and lows -15 to -20 below, similar to what happened December 20th 1990.

 

Pattern recognition:   This is the typical cold weather great basin Trof that returns to the west,  before a cold upper Trof retrogrades off shore.  Signs of this are now in the medium range as the next significant short wave digs west off shore, Monday/Night. This issue about this Trof is that the south-west upper flow is not expected for the Central and Northern CA region. Tt is reserved for Southern CA. So the early next week storm is likely to be bigger for So-Cal Tuesday precip wise. Nevertheless, we will still get light to possibly moderate amounts Monday/Night.  Then hang on….!!   Further retrogression is still advertised with good SW flow for Central and Northern CA beginning next Thursday or Friday. This is for March 1st or 2nd and that storm is a slow mover that could hang around all weekend according to the latest model runs….!

 

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Our Arctic front came through as expected with light over night snowfall and strong wind chills over the upper elevation this morning. IN town the streets were covered with snow of the squeaky kind. Temperatures will be in the teens for the most part today with over night lows near 0F.

Our Great Basin upper trof will park over the Great Basin for most of this week.  Next week as we wrap up the Month of February, retrogression of the long wave upper high and trof will occur as advertised. The trof axis will be fairly close to the west coast and so limited over water trajectory will continue snowfall here in the high country this Thursday the 22nd. More importantly…. Next Tuesday the 27th the subtropical jet will become confluent with the polar jet for a better storm at that time. However, so far, the PWAT is still not all that impressive from this distance in time. That may change later.

More importantly, if we believe the week two guidance on the GFS for this Mornings 12Z run, a wet fetch does emanate from Hawaii as the Pacific opens up, with a stronger subtropical jet at 250MB pointed at Southern CA. The PWAT is rich on that set up for about the 5th or 6th of march…..Stay Tuned….We may still have a water miracle during March….