Yesterday afternoon the Dweebs were a bit confused about certain coincidences in the weather forecast charts across the pacific. For one, a vigorous trof was progged into Central Ca Wednesday, forecasting Light to Moderate amounts of snowfall over the Central Sierra. Two; While the energy coming off japan was showing to be very weak, without any real surface deepening until it passed 160 East. Today when the Dweebs looked at the latest Progs,  it all made sense. Strong digging upper waves need rapidly deepening surface cyclogenesis off the coast of japan at 140 East to support the continued digging of west coast systems.  So just like the MJO can give a higher level of confidence to week’s two and three outlooks, the support given to digging west coast short waves for both the timing of the energy coming through the west coast and how far a particular short wave will dig should be supported by Hovmoller’s connection of such systems and the propagation of energy across the pacific. In this case, the net result is that Wednesday’s short wave will move through quicker and the cyclonic side of its upper jet axis does not make it as far south as Southern Mono County. This will likely severely limit the amount of snowfall previously expected. IE 6 to 12 inches vs 2 to 4 inches over the upper elevations. The back side of the upper trof will dig into Mono County Thursday for windy weather and colder temps…Great of Snowmaking!  The next weather system will make its way into the Eastern Pacific the following week. The Dweebs will take a hard look at all the progs to see what may be the best scenario for short wave energy to come through the west coast with the western pacific timing tool next week…First in my news letter, then here publicly.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweeb…….