Another good snowfall over the past 24 hours in Mammoth with approximately 12 to 18 inches of new over Mammoth Mt and some 4 to 8 inches in town. These were not the totals we expected, as much of the storms energy remained off the coast then inland over Southern California, El Nino Style…..

Once again we are seeing a change in the pattern as the eastern half of the CONUS gets cold Trofing….  This will take the energy out of the big storms, as the west coast temporarily experiences height rises (Higher pressure aloft) with the tendency for weaker storms next week….  However, with this said, we will get more snowfall…

Currently the upper cold trof that is exiting the region will keep our air mass unsettled today lending the chance for more snow showers.  A couple of inches of snowfall is certainly possible. The next system that is headed our way will move in just after midnight Friday night and bring light to moderate amounts to our resort Saturday/Ngt. Expect around 3 to 7 inches in town and 7 to 12 inches over Mammoth Mt Saturday through Saturday Night.

By Sunday the Eastern CONUS trof will deepen and the wave length will shorten leading to sharp ridging near the west coast.  This will make forecasting tricky as it is possible that systems will either punch through the ridge weakening as they do bringing light showery snowfall. Another possibility is that a short wave comes through the ridge to the north of us, then rapidly diverges to the south….spinning up as a closed low over the top of us as it heads south toward SO-Cal. Either way…these are not the type of systems that are big snow producers…..They bring mainly cold-showery light snowfall.

OUTLOOK: (Long Range)

This is not a forecast but just something to keep in you back pocket…..  Most of the Inter-seasonal models are giving us a nice break over the Martin Luther King holiday weekend.  This is in the week 2 period….   What I want to blog about is the possibility of another storm cycle around that time frame….or just beyond

 

Here are some thoughts.

  1. We have a strong -AO at the moment that is expect to remain for the next 2 weeks at least.  The PNA is positive.  (If you want to know what these teleconnections mean, I have already addressed them in recent discussion’s…
  2. Due to the Eastern CONUS trof in development,  a narrow but highly amplified ridge will develop along the west coast over the next 5 days….This ridge is not the type of ridge that is likely to block the tremendous energy of the southern stream that is barreling across the pacific due to El Nino. There is the possibility of a bust in the Dam (ridge) later next week with a resulting break through of the westerlies. The fact that NCPB ( Bias-Corrected Ensemble Global Forecast System) for the  “MJO” is in *phase spaces 7 and 8 and rotating within that area means that there is a tremendous amount of convection and constructive interference going on with the ENSO base state. The location is near the dateline and east north of the equator. The SOI is still tanked negative, so something has to give….  I know that some forecasters are saying that the GFS is out to lunch and the MJO is really progressive, but the GFS has been touting it for several days now and again today.   Look out for the “possibility of a bust in the Dam (break through in the westerlies) late next week or just past in the week beyond….  Again…..this is not a forecast just some interesting curiosities…

* http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpb.shtml

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)