9-11-2022 Update

Yesterdays rainfall in the Mono County that began mid afternoon into the evening averaged between .25 and .50 with some amounts in isolated areas of over an inch. There were two areas noted for stronger storms. For Mono County was the area around Mono Lake. For the Inyo country area, Between Big Pine and Coso Junction west over the Sierra where stronger storms occurred over the elevated heat source of the Sierra.

This mornings WX 500MB maps still show the upper circulation of the remains of Kate west of Ensenada with the area near Oxnard in the favored NE Quad of Upper divergence and on going showers.  PWATS still in excess of 1.75 inch along the South Bay this AM. 250MB upper divergence maps have a few noted areas of upper divergence as well in those areas. (SPC)

As the Suns daytime heating resumes Sunday, Couplets are likely to develop in this NE quad. Included, along the San Gabriel Traverse range West Northward, thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. Although the remains of Kate will remain off the coast another day or two, and her residual moisture as well over Southern and Central CA, a westerly upper jet will approach Tuesday into Wednesday, providing both drying and cooling to the state mid week.  This will set the stage for a fair weather period with below normal temps toward weeks end.   Further cooling is indicated in the both 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day NWS outlooks. This will be a dry pattern.

Longer range from CVS v2 indicates warm dry weather after the 25th through the last week of Sept and 1st week of Oct.

PS, there is still an inside slider type trof dropping in around the Equinox that may bring a few upslope snow showers around that time.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

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As crazy as the weather has been with the heat, then rain, then cooler weather next week, the change coming up in the models later next week and beyond is just as crazy. This is because we are going to shift very quickly into a Fall pattern with even the chance of light snow around the equinox….. Oktoberfest, Lederhosen and Down Vests to prost with?

 

From KLOX early this afternoon….

TS Kay is now 240 miles south of KLAX and moving northwest at around 11kt according to the most recent update from the NHC. Models have generally trimmed back the rainfall forecast locally, though with PW’s still expected to be around 2.4″ and some other
indicators like the Extreme Forecast Index showing a heightened potential for heavy rain, so will stay the course for now with regard to rainfall amounts and the Flash Flood Watch. Still not seeing any lightning but the convective parameters are at least
marginally favorable for convection, mainly tonight and not so much Saturday.

 

More on the storms effects for Mammoth on Saturday…..

 

PS, if you follow the Old Farmers Almanac,  pick up a copy or online version for the Winter of 22/23. According to it, the Southern and Central Sierra is going to have a very big winter with lots of snow.  Usually that almanac talks from both sides of their mouths.   However, this time their really going for it!

Personally I just find it amusing and fun to read.  I for one am not a believer. 😉

 

The Dweeber