Cold Upper Great Basin Trof Has pushed through this morning with Very Cold Temps in its wake…..Warming to follow into the weekend….Winter Passes on a dry note with better odds for meaningful snows with Springs Arrival….

3/11/22

Models beginning to react to the upcoming change of season with the upper flow becoming more progressive across the pacific and the La Nina pattern of predominantly meridional flow becoming less frequent in our future.. Like the Fall, until La Nina sets in, the upper jet sags ever so further south, with early season precip for the high country. However, once the PV sets up and extends south in the east, the EPR sets up close to west coast,  periods of cold, wind and below normal precip along with periods of a cold upper trof over the inter mountain west.  Now that Spring is around the corner, we may be getting back into the pattern that reflects a westerly flow that is progressive.  Storms may now resume their trek into the west coast. However, in order to get them south into Central and Southern CA, the pattern will need to show rising 500MB Heights west of Hawaii.

There is beginning to be some support for this change in the week 2 global models; Additionaly, the MJO is forecasted into the Eastern Indian ocean and an increasing amount of surface cyclogenises is progged off the coast of Japan next week; and the Scripts AR site is showing an increase in Subtropical moisure making its way into the west coast during the week 2 period. These are all positive factors for an outlook for storminess.  For what ever it is worth, the week 2 models are hinting at a signifacant storm for the Central west coast around the Vernal Equinox weekend. 19th/20th of March.

Keeping good thoughts!!

 

The Dweeber………………..:-)

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There is some remarkable air quality issues reported between Lone Pine and Olancha this afternoon. Looking at Airnow at 1:00PM; Keeler had PM 10 air quality counts of 439 at the Owens Dry Lake, Good time to be wearing those PM10 Masks!   Winds are 30 to 40mph out of the North.

Weather in Mammoth was cold aablyt 1:15pm, slightly breezy with highs in the upper 20s,  Winds NW 5 to 10MPH.

Forecast for Friday includes a warming trend. Expcet a high of 45 degrees with warming each day toward the mid 50s by Monday. It will be cloudy later in the weekend with breezy weather later Saturday into Sunday. The next system will be Tuesday from the west. Lots of high and mid level moisture but precipitation will be light as most forcing will be to our north.  The Last Day of Winter will be Saturday. The equainox arrives the following Sunday the 20th at 8:33AM.

 

Longer Range:

Looking at the GFS Ext. Ens [M] 0.5 7 day mean….The ensemble does retrograde the mean ridge position from the west coast westward, well past Hawaii. The ECMWF does to some degree as well, but not nearly as much.   I think that the idea is to slowly lower 500MB heights along the west coast beginning around the Equinox then through months end.  In that there is not likley to be the big stagnent east coast trof like this winter at that time, storms may have an easier time getting in here, before the deserts heat up.   More later…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs….:-)

 

 

This week will highlight another Cold Great Basin Trof windy weather in the high country Wednesday and gusty winds for the Owens Valley Thursday……….The weekend looks fair and warmer with highs recovering some 20 degrees from Thursday’s temps……Longer range models still bring hope for a wet system about the 15th…..

For all interested, the Snow Phone is back on line.

Thank you for your patience.

9:25AM Wednesday 9th

(Beautiful morning in the high country. Winds calm, temperature 42 degrees at 9:30AM)

An inside slider type storm will push into Northern CA tonight, beinging an increase of wind beginning this afternoon.  Highs today in Mammoth will be in the mid 40s. Winds will increase late today and tonight, with the chance of snow showers developing after midnight through mid day Thursday.  WInds in the Town of Mammoth will be the strongest Tonight with gusts to 40 mph, then post frontal winds out of the north will highlight areas along the highway 395 corridor.  Stronger North winds are expected to develop for the Owens Valley beginning around 8:00AM, continuing into the night Thursday.  WInd Advisorys are included in the Weather Service forecast all day Thursday with gusts 40 mph to 60 mph possible. It will be a dry front for the valley with snow showers in the high country. For those traveling south through the Owens Valley, it will be best for low profile vehicels as strong tail winds provide for great gas mileage on Thursday! If your headed north, well…not so good!

Thursday will be breezy and cold on Mammoth Mt with wind chill factor  below 0 on the Mountain. Highs in town will be in the upper 20s with lows in the low teens.

The gredient will relax Friday with a warmer day as ridging builds in. Low 40s are likley to return Friday with little additional warming over the weekend. Later Saturday and into Sunday may breeze up again as a system passes to our north.  Highs will continue into the 40s with nightime lows in the teens and 20s this weekend.

In the extended outlook, the Tuesday storm next week, looks to mainly give the Pacific NW south to the Northern Sierra, best odds for meaningfull snowfall. At this time, Mammoth would be in for light amounts (1 to 6 in). This of course is preliminary because of the distance in time.

The Dweebs will have a better handel on it all later this week.   BTW, there are several sytems expected expected to affect Northern CA later this Month.   Hopefully some of that gets far enough south to make a difference here.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

 

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It will be a warmer day today Tuesday in the high country. Highs will climb into the low 40s and winds will be light. Althrough little change in temperature is expected Wednesday, the winds will be up.   Another cold Great Basin Slider is expected Thursday with about 15 degreees of cooling and a skosh of snowfall. (Less than an inch) Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 20s.  The latest models return upper ridging to our area this Friday followed by a Trof to our north on Saturday Afternoon and evening. Although Saturday/Night looks dry, it may be quite breezy. Temperatures will recover quickly from Thursdays system, for Friday. It appears that the pattern acorss the Eastern Pacific will be becomming more progressive. There is a meanningful storm in the models for Tuesday, next week…..Even a weak AR with it.  Stay tuned!!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

Pattern Change will bring low end moderate amounts of snow this weekend with a fair early next week…Milder Temps is possible next Thursday into Saturday the following weekend…..

Mammoth Mt may pick up close to a foot of snow this weekend…Although not what we hoped for, still a decient amount to freshen up the base.   There are two systems…One that is taking a track a bit more to our south tonight as compared to what it looked like earlier this week. The track of the Upper low passes east near Santa Barbara, into Southern CA. That system will help to moisten things up for the colder more dynamic system headed in Friday night into Saturnday. All total, about in inch of water EQ is possible over the crest.  Snowfall amounts of some 4 to 8 inches is expected at 8000 feet and 8 to possibly as high as 10 inches over the crest.   Snowshowers may linger into Saturday evening.

The storm kicks out Sunday with slowly moderating temps early next week. The West Coast ridge nudges closer to the west coast Tuesday with the next upstream system diving south into the Rockies Wednesday.  That will keep our weather dry cool and a bit breezy Wednesday. Milder temps are expected Thursday into the following Saturday. The upper flow becomes west/south westerly by weeks end with a moist upper flow approaching the west coast.  Well see how it all develops.  In the meantime, enjoy the freshies this weekend!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)