Long Awaited Pattern Change at Hand as Long Wave or Adjustment Wave develops offshore. Snowfall returns to the high country Thursday….Then possibly on and off into following week….

1:25PM  Monday. the 28th

New ECMWF came in and splits the Trof more than GFS.  So amounts at this time look to be more in the 3 to 6 inches range rather than 8 to 10 over the crest. However, there is always the possibility of getting a bit more.  Another wave will come in Friday Night with another chance at light snowfall Saturday. We still look good for at least a foot total over the crest by weeks end with the unsettled weather lasting into early next week. There are other possibilities out there in the week 2 period.

New Strato warming event under way with potential effects over the far west mid month.

 

The Dweeber……………….:-)

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The long awaited change in the pattern will develop by the middle of the new week bringing the possibility of moderate snowfall back into the high country Thursday.  Although the pattern change for Central CA, is not expected to be associated with an AR, it will bring a good shot of snowfall to the high country, beginning this Thursday and even possibly into the following week depending upon which model you look at. Latest Sunday 12Z GFS Deterministic Model run has about a foot of snow over the crest by Friday morning with another shot coming in Saturday and another Monday a week away.   Hopefully the hits keep right on coming to where we might get a few feet of snow by the end of 2nd week of March.   The first system is pacific born, and so it will be warmer with higher snow levels while its successors bring colder systems ,as the Long Wave once again develops to our east.

 

More Later……:-)

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

Cold Arctic Born System Moves Out Today with Clearing Skys and Even Colder Temperatures Tonight….A gradual warming trend is expected through early next week……..MJO Forcing this Month to Produce Undercutting of the Westerlies Mid Week Next Week….

2-24-2022

Quick update this morning to tout the record cold temperatures in the Owens Valley last night. A new record of 9 degree was set at the Bishop AP eclisping the old record set back in 1991 of 10 degrees for this Morning.

A slow warming trend is expected as Cold Arctic Air leaves the region and modifys. At the sametime, early morning lows will get colder in areas like Bridgeport which had enough breeze last night to keep temps to only zero.

Tonights lows will be at least -10 as temp inversions set in.

MJO forcing still on track to force pattern change next week.  The ECMWF model has been pretty consistant with a wetter storm about the middle of next week.  It has the upper jet coming in just north of Santa Barbara.  The GFS has been lagging so far. However, it too is now picking up on the change and brings in a system from the west about Wednesday night or Thursday.  I will say that the system is fairly far to our north, in this mornings opperational run.  Being that the EC has been so consistant, there is plenty of time for the GFS to adjust.   The GFS has the system tracking more our way for the following Friday night and Saturday, followed by a colder system the following Monday. The GFS suggests a return to the cold drier than normal pattern we currenty have for a while the folowing week.  Lots of time to figure it all out!!

 

The Dweeber……………….:-)

 

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It was an exceptionally cold Breezy Day Tuesday with a high of 18 in Mammoth Lakes. An equally cold day today is expected with breezes expected to develop later this afternoon.   Tonight as skies clear, tempertures will plummet to near zero in Mammoth with areas like Bridgeport and Crowley Lakes -15 to -20.   Beginning Thursday, a gradual warming trend of expected into Early Next week. BTW, Mammoth Mt reported 5 to 6 inches of new powdery snow!

We’re approaching the end of the month now and we are going to see if the MJO tropical forcing signel brings in a storm from the west by the middle of next week. Tuesday or Wednesday woud be the time frame of a possible weak AR or something like that. At the Moment, the GFS is not showing anything signifacant. However,  the Euro is very encourging. Stay tuned. This is the response that the Dweebs have been touting the past several weeks….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

Seasonable Temperatures expected this weekend before another very cold Great Basin Low set up over the far west….Early to Mid Week….

Expect light breezes along with seasonal temperatures this weekend before winds increase Sunday afternoon. Winds will guat up into the 30 MPH range with ridge top gusts about 60 MPH on Sunday PM. Mammoth Lakes Highs will be in the low to mid 40s with lows in upper teens.  A dry cold front will push through late Sunday night with a few snow showers possible.

Next week is a different animal with an even colder system being tapped to push into the far west Monday, followed by a colder system Tuesday and Wednesday. Record or near record low temperatures are expected Tuesday into Wednesday with the Bridgeport Valley according to the guidence going possibly -15F to -17F?, Wednesday AM. This mornings 500MB guidence follows the trend of a bit eastward jog in the track, emphisizing a bit drier scenario for the high country Tuesday and Wednesday, so 1 to 4 inches is what’s expected for the upper elevations. This storm will be a better snow producer for the Rockies.

The Weather over the area this weekend should be a little milder as a weak system moves south down the coast setting up a little southerly flow aloft.  Highs in the upper 40s Saturday….

The Longer Range continues to be interesting with the MJO having an influence on the extratropics -120E to -130E and mid latitude upper flow, during mainly the end of the month and through the first week of March. Although a major wet  storm is not forcastable yet, it is greatly encourging to see the extention of the East Asian Upper jet taking place in the models around  the 25th, with a possible AR extending to the central west coast the end of the month of February. The week 2 global models are showing a major change in the pattern toward the end of the Month, with the breaking down of the eastern pacific ridge with westerlies uncutting.  Whether or not it actually happends is one thing as the possibiity is pretty decient. The other point is that the week two guidence is responding to the tropical forcing that has been forcasted now for over two weeks for the end of the month.  This is even more interesting to me….

Stay Tuned!!

 

The Dweeber…………………;-)