Mammoth Weather

3-22-2023

The remains of the low pressure system that brought 18 inches of snow to the Main Lodge yesterday is moving out today. The storm total from last Sunday and Tuesday on Mammoth Mt was 34 inches. Both of these systems were all part of the same storm with the 1st part, the warm sector then the cold that hit yesterday. Mammoth Mt now reports a base at the Main Lodge of 664 inches with well over 800 inches on the upper mountain. (Historic)

The pattern through the weekend is a bit unsetteled with wind on Friday and some light snow showers at times. The next storm is slowing down a bit. It is expected Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Preliminary, it looks at least as stormy as yesterday’s system was for Mammoth. Will have more info on that storm later this week when it gets closer.

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3-21-2023

In checking the DWP data for Mammoth Pass this AM, the Pass has already surpassed the April 1st figures for all time with 90.3 inches of water and is 212% of normal for April 1st. During the big water year of 1983, 83.7 inches was on the Pass for 192% of normal. During the winter of 1969, 86.5 inches or (199%) of normal for that same date. It’s alleged, that during the winter of 1983, there was 90 inches at the Pass later that Spring. I am also working to find out what the extra precipitation amounts were during the winter of 1969, during April and May of that year.  So, the new benchmark year for April 1st of any in the past is at 90.3 inches. More snowfall today will add to that April 1st benchmark as well as any future storms by April 1st.

Winter Storm Warnings are currently in effect through 5:00AM Wednesday. Expect 12 to 18 inches in town with “between” 2 feet and 3 feet along and near the Mammoth Crest according to WSFO Reno. This storm will stall this morning west of Monterey Bay and remain between Monterey Bay and the Bay area through Wednesday AM, before it shifts east Wednesday. There are a few colder storms over the weekend with light snow showers possible. It looks cold and at times blustery through the weekend. A low confidence outlook for next week shows the next storm on the 28th through much of the end of month. (Highly subject to change)   QPF wise, it looks similar to this one. (2 to 3 feet) over the Crest)  This mornings 12Z model run of the GFS has this system as the last of March.

ENSO:   The “El Nino Southern Oscillation”

Its official; La Nina is dead! So what’s to come later this year from this change.

From the Climate Prediction Center;

The most recent IRI plume favors ENSO-neutral to continue through the spring, with El Niño forming during summer 2023 and persisting through the fall. In contrast, the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral through summer 2023, with elevated chances of El Niño developing afterwards. The smaller chances of El Niño relative to the model predictions are primarily because ENSO forecasts made during the spring are less accurate, and also the tropical Pacific atmosphere is still fairly consistent with a cool/La Niña-like state. However, it is possible that strong warming near South America may portend a more rapid evolution toward El Niño and will be closely monitored. In summary, La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023.

Of interest, see the Warm Kelvin Wave and its effect noted in the sub surface water temps.  Look at the subsurface temp anomalies. Look at the effects of this surfacing warmth taking place off the Central America coast. See the latest forecast for ENSO Graph.

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Spring arrives at 2:24PM today the 20th!

Last nights snowfall forecast was a bust with only 2 to 4 inches. Anyone complaining? Today Monday looks beautiful but very breezy over the higher elevations. Highs today will be in the 30s..

The forecast for more snowfall is still in for this Tuesday and Wednesday with another 15 to 20 inches possible at the Village. 2 to 3 feet possible in the upper elevations by Wednesday Night. A winter storm warning is hoisted for our area for Tuesday and Tuesday night. The storm comes on shore between Monterey Bay and San Jose. What this means for Mammoth is that the best Upper Jet Forcing is to the south of us. Snowfall will very greatly some 50 to 80 miles south of us.
As an example, Huntington Lake has a QPF of 3.00 for the Tuesday through Wednesday period while Yosemite has about 1.50 inches. So about half within 60 miles.

Beyond mid week, expect on and off snow showers with chilly weather and breezy to windy conditions. High temps in Mammoth will cool to the 20s later this weekend. The upper jet becomes more NW orientated with central west coast storms holding off until the 28th.

Latest GFS 12Z Run has a very similar storm on the 27th to tomorrows storm. It is another cold closed low that comes in near Monterey Bay with at least two Strong Vort Centers. One Tuesday the 28 and 29th.  Just as an early  estimate,  this system has the potential of bringing between 1 and 3 feet to Mammoth and the upper mountain. That system is following by another cold NW slider like this Fridays system with snow showers.

Way down the road about the end of the first week of April; 5th or 6th, another showery system is possible.  At this time, the Dweebs do not see a major storm during the first calendar week of April.  Yeah!!!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)

Sunday Night 10:30PM                    (Please click on the title above for the correct format)

Tonight’s update for snowfall at the village through Wednesday (This is based upon the point forecast from the NWS at 8000)

Sunday NGT through 5:00AM Monday    7 to 11 inches

Monday                                                    1-3 inches

Monday Night                                             0

Tuesday                                                     9-13 inches

Tuesday night                                            3 to 7 inches

Wednesday                                                1 -3 inches

Total snowfall between Sunday Night and Wednesday night is between  21 and 37 inches

Lets hope for the least amount!

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Sunday AM

Light snow began falling once again in the Mammoth Lakes area early this morning. The remains of a very week AR is into CA and snowfall amounts will be light today totaling some 4 to 8 inches with another 7 to 11 inches possible over night at the 8000 foot level. This is according to the point forecast from the NWS. The subtropical tap runs its course and is out of here by Monday. Monday should be unsettled with little accumulation in new snowfall…   The Snow level will bounce around but remain at or below 7000 the next 24 hours.

After Monday, the weatherman’s attention becomes more focused upon a more dynamic storm from the Gulf of Alaska which arrives on Tuesday. This ones got wind, heavy snowfall predicted and is cold. A winter storm watch has been hoisted for Tuesday at 5:00AM through Wednesday at 11:00AM. Between 1 and 2 feet is expected from this storm in town. Wednesday looks to be showery with light accumulations.

Of note both the European and the GFS Models handle the upper low a bit different.  The European model brings the upper low in over Napa, CA Tuesday evening while the GFS takes it in over Monterey Bay. Although this does not make much difference for the Southern Sierra, the more northerly trek is more preferred by the snow lovers as it bring a bit more upper divergence aloft (Better Jet Support) to the Mammoth area for more snowfall. The difference could be another foot of snow. Again the point snowfall forecast just for the Tuesday Storm is between 9 and 17 inches at the Village at Mammoth.

I will update in regards to the two model differences tomorrow Monday afternoon, for the Tuesday system.

BTW; Spring arrives at 2:24PM tomorrow Monday the 20th so the Tuesday Storm is the first Spring Storm.

All together, the total snowfall over the next 5 days is expected to be 2 to 3 feet in town and between 3 and 5 feet on the Mountain according to the NWS point forecast.

Longer Range:

We Transit to a colder showery pattern as NW sliders affect our area. That’s a chilly breezy to windy pattern between Thursday and the end of the week. Any snowfall will be in the Light to Moderate range. (1-6) or (6-18) inches.

Westerly Flow may return in early April……Well See.    The Longer Range is looking really squirrely.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)