Nice Warm Weekend with Breezy Weather late and early next week….Mini Heat Wave Mid Week……

April 3rd

Just a quick update

Longer range outlook looking quite promising for chilly unsettled weather beginning about the 10th and continuing for a week.  Questions continue to be where the Trof axis is going to set up.  Gfs has it plenty far west for good April type storm, while Euro is a bit too Far East for good snow producer.  More later on this as the pattern hits just after Easter Sunday.

 

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Outside of some high clouds….This weekend will be very nice with high clouds and temps in the mid to upper 50s.  Mammoth winds will be up a bit and so it will be breezy Sunday into Monday but not cooler.  Amplifacation out over the pacific builds upper 500mb heights to anomalious levels next week, witch then progresses into Calfornia by mid week.   This sets the stage for some of the warmest weather so far this year. It just may hit 70 in Mammoth by Friday a week away!.  (Upper 80s in Bishop)  Lows at night now in the 30s will dip to freezing early then well into the upper 30s mid week.

 

Pattern:

Progressive with the upper jet favoring the Pacific NW into Monday next week. It then pushes upward into British Columbia Tuesday into early Wednesday. It then retreates to off the entire North American Coast Wednesday night into Friday the 8th.  The following weekend has the strong upper height anomaly pushing east from the far west with high clouds returning to CA and temps retreating that wekend.  Early the following week, the weather will become unsettled with wind, cooling and possibly showers.  High temps this weekend in the mid to upper 50s then low 60s by Tuesday and mid to upper 60s Wednesday though Friday, lows at night in the 30s.

 

ENSO:

Obviously there was a head-fake to climate scientests this past winter as La Nina was supposed to fade this Spring.   What actually happened, was a Kelvin Wave appearently faded in Late February and March with sub surface SSTs cooling between 140W and 170W. The demise of La Nina was supposed to occur over this Summer with the next EL Nino developing by the end of this year or during the WInter of 2023. That now has been pushed off timewise and we will have to get beyond “The Spring Barrier” to better understand when the “little girl” will leave.  In checking with some climate scientists, they indicated to me that it is not pertictulary unusual for La Nina to last three years.  However, 4 years would be unpresented based upon their comments.   So with that understood, La Nina should be leaving us at the latest, sometime in 2023, with the odds of an especially wet winter as early as 2023/24 Fall/Winter.  Just as a comment, We have wet La Ninas too.  However, La Ninas bias is always drier than normal for the southern half of CA.

For us in the high country, this is going to be an exceptionally dry summer. There is likley going to be horried forest fires in areas that have not burned yet. Locals should now stock up on HEPTA FAU filters for their homes and air purifier systems, KN 95 masks for our respiratory systems and just hope that many of the large burned areas of the forest already burned to the west and southwest of us, give us the protection we need. LIghting fires will be most concerning.  At the moment, the CFS, Climate Forecast System is showing a dry bias to AZ for the month of July. The ECMWF seasonal outlook will be out on the 5th of April.  So far it does not appear to be a wet monsoon season for the Desert Southwest.  With that said, dry based thunderstorms are the norm in the Eastern Sierra during the summer. We do not need monsoonal flow and dynamics to get thunderstorms. When it gets especially hot in July and August, heat spells are always followed by instability and dry afternoon thunderstorms. These are the primary fire-igniters of the forest.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

 

 

Record Warmth followed by a Moderate Storm in the high country, next 5 days…….A cool down is expected prior to the following weekend…

SNOWFALL UPDATE:

Mammoth expecting some 3 to 5 inches in town and 7 to 10 inches up on Mammoth Mountain Sunday night through Tuesday Morning.

 

It will be a breezy day today with winds 25 to 30 MPH out of the WSW. Sky conditions parlty then mostly cloudy later today.

 

Highs in the Town near 60 today and 50s Sunday. Lows in the 30s.   Snowfall to begin above 8000 feet Sunday night then lower Monday into Tuesday. (IOP; Monday night into Tuesday AM)

 

The Dweeber….

 

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A warm upper ridge building into the west coast is bringing record warmth for this time of the year. Mid 60s in Mammoth and mid 80s in Bishop is expected the next few days.  Lows at night will be milder then normal, in the mid 30s.   The weekend outlook looks mild with an increase of high clouds for our area. We can expect breezy weather to develop Sunday with the chance of showers developing during the afternoon.   Snowfall  will be likley Sunday night into Monday. The California Rivers Forecast center is showing up to an inch of QPF for our Sierra Crest. Thus some 7 to 10 inches is possible over the upper elevations of the sierra,, between Sunday and Tuesday. AM.    Expect a warm up the middle of next week.

For the extended outlook, the Euro 500 Ext means is showing another Great Basin trough developing for the end of the month, so our warm up will be short lived, the middle of next week.  It appears that there will be a series of weak type storms affecting California in early April with normal temperatures.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)

 

 

 

A Series of Fast moving spring storms highlight the pattern this week….Tuesdays system will feature higher snow levels, wind and light snowfall…..A wetter systerm is probable next weekend….

After a raging wind storm Sunday morning, this morning was quite tranquel with sunny skys and calm winds. It will be a warmer day today Monday with clear skys and light to moderate breezes developing. The high temperature will be 54 in town today with lows tonight near 30 with wind.

A fast moving front will move through Tuesday morning bringing a dusting to an inch over the crest Tuesday. The upper jet is over Northern CA, so don’t expect much precip. It will about 5 degrees cooler Tuesday wIth highs in the upper 40s and lows in the momng in the lows 20s. Warmer weather returns Thursday into Friday with highs back into the low 50s.

This Weekend outlook offers the possibity of the first decient storm in weeks if not months.  The only concern I have is that it may split a bit as it comes in.  If it holds together well, it could dump a foot or more over the crest by the end of the weekend with the brunt of the storm either late Saturday night or early Sunday AM.

In the very long range, (Week 2) the GFS has a storm about the 27th/28th…At this time the Europian keeps the upper jet to the north on the 28th.

 

The Dweebs will update later this week….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)