Archive for year 2018

Couple of systems headed our way this new week…Best in the group still expected Wednesday Night and Thursday….

Tuesday Morning 8:30 AM

After a mild day today with light winds and highs in the mid 40s, the next weather system will bring increasing winds late tonight with wind advisories in effect for the Mono County area beginning at 10:00AM Wednesday through Wednesday night, 10:00PM. Snowfall will begin here in Southern Mono County Wednesday mid to late evening and will increase during the early morning hours Thursday.  This storm system is different from last weeks fiasco as its energy will lift through the sierra and not split and head south down the coast. Thus orographic’s will come to play and amounts being only moderate as there “is not” an atmospheric river associated with it. The Dweebs are expecting approximately 6 to 10 inches above 8000 feet including the crest and 4 to 6 inches between 7000 and 8000 feet. It is possible that the crest may see a bit more as again,  orographics come into play combined with colder temps. This will provide for higher than usual snow to water ratios.

This mornings forecast calls for about .75 hundreds QPF.

The weekend looks partly cloudy with milder weather and slowly rising temperatures Saturday through Monday.

The next weather system will come through by about month’s end.

 

The Dweeber………………..:-)

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New 00Z Monday the 22nd GFS is running at the moment and consistent with this mornings run in bringing a storm Wednesday night into Thursday with moderate amounts over the upper elevations and light amounts in town. Light category is 1 to 6 inches and moderate is between 6 to 18 inches. Contrary to the last system and as of this time, the energy is expected to come through the sierra instead of diving south down the coast.  The southward dive of the storms dynamics is what caused the lack of precipitation on the east side last week. Will update the details of this weather system for Wednesday night and Thursday,  tomorrow and again Tuesday to make sure that there are not any changes in the development as was the case with the last storm.

In the meantime we have a small system that will bring some snow showers late tonight into the late morning hours Monday.  Anyware from a dusting in town to an inch or two over the sierra crest is possible by noon Monday.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)

Chilly Storm left 4 to 5 inches on Mammoth Mt….the splitting systems main energy is headed through LA tonight….Next system will trend further north…..Mammoth Mt “may” get simular amounts

Friday Evening:

As always, a disappointment when we need snowfall and you end up with 4 to 5 inches on the hill when a foot is expected. As indicated below, the storms main vort max is headed into Southern Ca tonight. The system split well off shore. The next upstream systems main energy is well to the north. However, it is not splitting! So we may get a pleasant surprise to the 1 to 2 inches expected by Monday. 3 to 4? No promises….

Models still looking forward to a more significant system mid week…..Stay tuned….The models have all promised this before….

Won’t get excited until Monday if it is still holding together….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)

Weather to turn cold and windy tonight with snowfall……Light to Moderate amounts expected…..A rather windy period is expected for the next 5 to 7 days…..

As of 1:40PM, The next weather system that will affect our area has spread precipitation south to the Bay Area. However the band of precip has yet to reach the sierra, north or south.  Snowfall projections are now on the low end of the forecast with a foot expected on the sierra crest by Friday night.  The NWS is not issuing a winter storm warning as snowfall is expected in the 3 to 6 inch range in town with 1 to 4 inches along the 395 corridor. High temps will be falling through Saturday with highs in the upper 20s by then….Lows in the teens….

 

WX Discussion:

This weather system is highlighted by a split in the flow in the long wave pattern along about 40 north with main precip band to the north, then weakening to the south. Main energy will dive south into Northern Baja. This sort of storm is reminiscent of many during drought years….  Additionally, the behavior of the systems in the models from 5 to 7 days out vs within a few days of the event suggests that the global models do not have a handle on the overall pattern, over the eastern and central pacific. Thus there is little confidence beyond 3 to 4 days.   Case in point; there is another very significant storm showing up, from the WNW in the 18Z GFS model run today 1/18/18,  This is for the period next Wednesday the 24th through Thursday night.  The EC has it as a very cold NW or inside slider.  In my opinion neither model has a handel on the final outcome for that period. The Dweebs can not wait until the QBO switches from Negative to Positive later this Summer or Fall of 2018. In my opinion, this teleconnection along with others is partially responsible for the extreme dryness so far this Winter.

 

The Dweeber……………….:-)